Exit Poll

Exit poll is a practice to conduct surveys of voters after they have cast their votes to predict the election results. It first originated in the US Presidential election. The exit polls conducting procedure involves sample selection, Questionnaire development, Interview, data collection and analysis and finally dissemination of results. However the process of conducting exit polls is also subject to errors due to non responsive voters, absentee voters and volatility of voter behaviour. The exit polls are regulated in India through Representation of People Act,1951. RPA, 1951 authorises Election Commission of India (ECI) to regulate the exit polls. The Election Commission typically imposes a "prohibition period" during which exit poll results cannot be published or disseminated. This prohibition period starts from the beginning of the first phase of polling and continues until the conclusion of the last phase of polling. The polling media agencies should adhere to the guidelines. The exit poll accuracy can be improved by improving methodologies, taking quality control measures and enhanced cooperation with the regulatory authorities to make it a more effective tool in understanding voter behaviour.

The practice of conducting exit polls originated in the mid-20th century in the US as a method to predict election outcomes. It was done by directly surveying voters after they had cast their votes. The practice gained prominence during the 1960 US presidential election between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon. In this election, media organizations conducted surveys of voters exiting polling stations to gather data on voting patterns and preferences. Over the years, exit polling techniques have evolved with advances in technology and statistical methods.

Exit poll is a practice to predict the election results. It is done by surveying the voters through different techniques like face-to-face interviews or computer based telephonic interviews immediately after they have cast their votes in the polling stations. They provide an indication of potential election outcomes before official results are announced.

1. Sample selection: Exit polls are typically conducted by polling agencies or media organizations. The media agency first select a random sample to survey. The sample collected should be diverse and reflective of the overall electorate.
2. Questionnaire development: The agencies develop an effective questionnaire to collect the required data. The questions include voter's demographic information, voting preferences, reasons for voting, and other relevant factors.
3. Interview: The voters are interviewed based on the questionnaire. The interview of the voter is taken just after he/she exits the polling station. The survey can be conducted through face-to-face interview or through modern electronic devices.
4. Data collection: The responses of the voters are recorded and it is ensured that the data is accurately captured.
5. Data analysis: Once data collection is complete, polling agencies analyze the survey responses to identify voting patterns, trends, and preferences among different demographic groups. Statistical techniques and software may be used to process and analyze the data.
6. Dissemination of results : After analysing the data, the results are disseminated to the public. The results of exit polls are released through press releases, media briefings, or publication on the website of media agencies.

• Prone to error: Exit poll relies on a random sample which may not be the true representative of the overall electorate.
• Nonresponse bias: Not all the voters in the sample selected genuinely participate and respond in the process. Due to the decreased participation the sample may not remain representative of the entire electorate.
• Volatility of Voter behaviour: The decisions of voters can be influenced in the last moment. So, the exit polls conducted earlier in the day may not capture shifts in voter sentiment that occur later, leading to discrepancies between the predicted and actual election results.
• Absentee voters: In the exit, the opinions of only those are analysed who have cast their votes. The exit poll does not account for the absentee voters and hence the final results of the exit poll may have errors.

Exit polls are conducted immediately after voters have cast their votes to predict the results of the elections while Opinion polls are conducted before the elections take place to estimate the inclination of the voters in the upcoming elections.

Need of Regulation : Exit polls if released prematurely can potentially influence voting behaviour. Hence, regulation of exit polls is needed to preserve the electoral integrity and to prevent the dissemination of false and misleading predictions about the voting trends. Exit poll regulations help prevent manipulation and fraud by ensuring that accurate and reliable information is disseminated to the public. By regulation the stability and confidence in the electoral process is promoted. The exit polls are regulated through -

1. Representation of the People Act, 1951 : Section 126A of the RPA,1951 prohibits the publication and dissemination of exit poll results during the period when voting is taking place. Under the RPA Act, the Election Commission of India is empowered to manage and regulate the election procedure. It is responsible for conducting free and fair elections. The ECI has the authority to issue guidelines and instructions regarding the conduct of exit polls as part of its broader mandate to regulate the electoral process.
2. Election Commission of India (ECI) :
   • The main regulating authority for the exit polls is the Election Commission of India.
   • Under Article 324, ECI prohibits the media agencies from publishing or releasing the results of exit polls.
   • The Election Commission typically imposes a "prohibition period" during which exit poll results cannot be published or disseminated.
   • This prohibition period starts from the beginning of the first phase of polling and continues until the conclusion of the last phase of polling.
   • Punishment for violation of the ECI guidelines is 2 years jail terms or fine or both.
   • ECI also mandates the media agencies which conduct exit polls to get registered with the ECI. Media agencies interested in conducting exit polls typically need to submit an application with the details of their organisation for registration to the Election Commission. After the verification process, media agencies can be granted approval. The registration helps the ECI to uphold the credibility of these media agencies.
   • Registered media outlets are typically required to adhere to certain rules and regulations (code of conduct) released by the ECI.

1. United States: There are no laws in US to regulate the practice of exit polls. In US, there is no restriction in releasing the exit poll results.However, the results are not published until the voting gets completed.
2. Germany: the exit polls in Germany are strictly regulated. It is considered a crime in Germany to release the results of exit poll before the completion of voting in all polling stations.
3. UK: The publication of exit poll results is not regulated by law, but media outlets refrain from publishing results until voting in all polling stations have ended.
4. Bulgaria: In Bulgaria, the publishing of results of exit polls is prohibited and criminalised before the last voting day.
5. Singapore: In Singapore a complete ban on the exit polls has been imposed.

• Improved methodology: The procedure like sampling techniques, preparation of proper questionnaire should be improved to conduct exit polls to increase the accuracy of the exit polls results.
• Quality control measures: To minimise the errors in exit poll results quality control measures should be taken like training interviewers, monitoring data collection procedures, and conducting thorough data validation and verification.
• Cooperation between polling agencies and regulatory authorities: More cooperation between regulatory authorities and media agencies should be there to have refined guidelines for the exit polls. The collaboration between the ECI and media agencies can lead to more accurate exit poll results.
• Research and Innovation: Investing in research and innovation to develop new methodologies, technologies, and approaches for conducting exit polls can enhance their accuracy, efficiency, and relevance in the rapidly evolving landscape of elections and voter behavior.

Exit poll is a valuable tool to understand voter behaviours during the elections. They provide real-time insights into voting patterns, demographic trends, and potential election outcomes. However, exit polls also have limitations and challenges, including sampling error, nonresponse bias, and ethical considerations. With the changing voting behaviour and evolving landscape of the elections, the exit poll methods should also be evolved to produce accurate results. The polling agencies should also properly follow the ECI guidelines to maintain the essence of election procedure.