Population Pyramid

India's demographic landscape reflects a journey from stagnant growth to surpassing China as the world's most populous nation. With projections indicating a population of 1.522 billion by 2036, the country experiences declining growth rates, attributed to factors like family planning and changing socio-economic dynamics. Gender-wise, India anticipates a more favorable sex ratio for women by 2036, impacting rural and urban areas differently. The evolving age distribution highlights a narrowing base and broadening middle in the population pyramid, with implications for workforce dynamics. This demographic transition aligns with stages of economic development, with India poised to harness its demographic dividend through strategic policies addressing education, healthcare, and employment. Additionally, gender-sensitive approaches are crucial for inclusive development and socio-economic equity

The development trajectory of a nation is significantly influenced by its population demographics and the dynamics therein, which are, or ought to be, influenced by developmental policies and advancements. It's crucial to comprehend how gender intersects with population demographics and dynamics to craft and execute policies and programs aimed at altering a country's environmental, socio-political, and economic landscape and fostering development prospects. Analyzing population composition through a gender lens is pivotal for grasping the intricacies of a society's social structure.

In April 2023, India surpassed China to become the world's most populous country, with UN population estimates indicating a population of 1.4286 billion people. China's population stood at 1.4257 billion during the same period. According to the Census of 2011, India's population was 1.211 billion, with females comprising 48.5% of the total. Projections suggest that by 2036, India's population will reach 1.522 billion, with a slightly improved female percentage of 48.8%. The rate of population growth has been declining, dropping from an average annual growth rate of 2.2% in 1971 to 1.1% in 2021, and it is projected to further decrease to 0.58% by 2036. This trend is consistent for both males and females during this period, with the exception of a slight increase in the proportion of females from 1971 to 1981.

1. Stagnant Population (1901-1921)
   • Remarks:
     • Birth rate: High.
     • Death rate: High.
     • Census 1921 recorded a population decline (-0.31%) compared to 1911, attributed to factors like WW1, Drought, Epidemics, and Spanish flu influenza.
     • Unique occurrence in India's demographic history, termed as the "year of Great Demographic Divide."
2. Steady Growth (1921-1951)
   • Remarks:
     • Birth rate: High.
     • Death rate: Medium.
     • Referred to as 'Mortality induced growth' due to declining death rates contributing to population rise.
     • Population increased as deaths decreased.
3. Rapid High Growth (1951-1981)
   • Remarks:
     • Birth rate: High.
     • Death rate: Low.
     • Impacted by agricultural revolution and advancements in medical research.
     • Agricultural revolution reduced famine impact, leading to decreased mortality rates.
     • Medical research contributed to the containment of epidemics and increased life expectancy.
     • Despite improvements, breeding behavior remained unchanged, resulting in a population explosion termed as 'Fertility induced growth.'
4. High Growth with Definite Signs of Slowing Down (1981-2011)
   • Remarks:
     • Birth rate: Medium to low.
     • Death rate: Lower.
     • Birth rate gradually decreasing due to factors such as family planning initiatives, the prevalence of nuclear families, and a higher cost of living

Demographers utilize population pyramids to illustrate the distribution of populations by age and gender. The Y-axis at the center of the graph represents age groups, while the X-axis indicates population size or percentage. The length of bars depicts the number or percentage of the population. Males are represented on the left side of the graph, while females are on the right. The base of the graph represents the younger population, while the apex represents the elderly.
There are three main types of population pyramids:

1. Expansive (Type A): Characterized by a broad base with a narrowing apex, indicating higher mortality rates at each successively older age group. This suggests a high birth rate and high death rate.
2. Constrictive (Type B): In this type, the base of the pyramid narrows while the apex widens. This signifies lower percentages of younger people and a higher proportion of elderly individuals. It reflects a low birth rate and lower death rates.
3. Stationary (Type C): All age groups have almost identical percentages, indicating very low birth and death rates. Population growth is minimal in this type.

The age structure type directly impacts a nation's future. Both extremes, whether it's a high dependency on the elderly or on the young, pose significant economic burdens on a country. Conversely, a higher proportion of the working-age population implies a larger workforce, which can be advantageous for economic growth.

The projected changes in the population composition by sex indicate a significant shift in the age distribution from 2011 to 2036. The proportion of the population under 15 years old is expected to decline due to decreasing fertility rates, while the proportion of individuals aged 60 years and above is projected to increase considerably during this period. Consequently, the population pyramid will undergo a transformation, with the base narrowing down and the middle broadening by 2036. These changes will be observed for both sexes.

The trend of the working-age population is a crucial factor in shaping the labor force size and influencing the direction of inter-state labor migration. With changing age compositions, India's working-age population is projected to continue increasing up to 2036. According to the Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections for India and States 2011-2036, in 2011, 735 million people, constituting 60.7% of India's population, were in the working-age group (15-59 years). This population segment is anticipated to expand over the years, reaching 988.5 million by 2036.

Population pyramids provide insights into the number of women and men across various age groups within a country. Gender distribution is a significant demographic characteristic, and the ratio between the number of women and men in the population is known as the sex ratio. In India, this ratio is calculated using the formula: Sex ratio = (Total Female population / Total Male population) × 1000.

According to the Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections for India and States 2011-2036, the sex ratio (number of females per 1000 males) in 2036 is projected to be more favorable to women compared to the ratio in 2011, increasing from 943 to 952.

During the post-independence period from 1951 to 2011, the sex ratio in rural areas exhibited a fluctuating trend, reaching its lowest point (938) in 1991, followed by an increasing trend in the subsequent two census years. Conversely, in urban areas, the sex ratio experienced a consistent increase from 1971 to 2011. However, the sex ratio in rural areas is projected to increase from 949 in 2011 to 969 in 2036, while in urban areas, it is expected to remain around 929, with a slight decline to 926 in 2036. The lower sex ratio in urban areas compared to rural areas can be attributed to male migration from rural to urban areas. As of 2011, the only states/union territories with a favorable sex ratio were Kerala and Puducherry.

According to Census 2011, the sex ratio in the age groups 0-6, 15-59, and 60+ was observed as 918, 944, and 1033 respectively.

The sex ratio at birth for the country for the period 2018-20 (3-year average) has been estimated at 907. At the national level, it is 907 in rural areas and 910 in urban areas. Among the larger states/union territories, the sex ratio at birth varies from 974 in Kerala to 844 in Uttarakhand.

• CBR:
  • The Crude Birth Rate (CBR) at the all-India level declined from 36.9 in 1971 to 33.9 in 1981, representing a decrease of approximately 8 percent. From 1991 to 2020, there has been a decline of about 34 percent, with the CBR falling from 29.5 to 19.5.
• TFR:
  • The total fertility rate (TFR) decreased from 5.2 to 4.5 during the period from 1971 to 1981, and further dropped from 3.6 to 2.0 from 1991 to 2020. In rural areas, the TFR declined from 5.4 to 2.2 between 1971 and 2020, while in urban areas, the corresponding decline was from 4.1 to 1.6 during the same period.
• Institutional deliveries:
  • In 2020, approximately 82.6 percent of deliveries occurred in institutional settings, which include both government and private hospitals. The percentage of institutional deliveries in urban areas was notably higher at 95.0 percent, compared to about 78.2 percent in rural areas.

The concept of demographic dividend pertains to the economic growth resulting from changes in the age structure of a country's population. This change occurs due to a decline in both birth and death rates. With fewer births being registered, the proportion of young dependents decreases relative to the working-age population. In essence, the dividend can be likened to a reward distributed among shareholders, representing the division of profit or surplus received.

In a country, there exists a working population and a dependent population. The ratio between the working and non-working dependent population determines the country's economic productivity. A higher ratio indicates a greater contribution of the working population to the economy.

According to the Economic Survey 2018-19, India's demographic dividend is expected to peak around 2041, when the population of working age (individuals aged 20 to 59 years) will comprise approximately 59% of the total population.

During a demographic transition, changes occur in fertility rates, birth rates, and death rates, leading to a transformation in the age structure of a country. As the number of births decreases, the proportion of dependents decreases relative to the working-age population. With more people in the workforce and fewer dependents to support, the country's resources can be allocated to other areas, fostering economic development. This shift results in an increase in per capita income over time, benefiting everyone in the economy.

The benefits are not achieved automatically. Realizing these benefits requires the implementation of appropriate government policies in various sectors such as education, health, and research. Factors influencing the realization of demographic dividends include levels of education, employment opportunities, fertility rates, and economic policies such as tax incentives, health programs, and pension and retirement policies. Effective policies in these areas can maximize the potential economic gains from demographic transitions and ensure widespread benefits across the population.
The demographic dividend in a country manifests in various ways:

1. Personal savings can grow, as individuals have fewer dependents to support financially. These savings can be channeled into investments, stimulating economic growth and development.
2. With fewer children to support, parents can invest more resources in their education. This investment in human capital enhances the skills and capabilities of the workforce, leading to increased productivity and economic growth in the long run.
3. The participation of more women in the labor force and their economic empowerment contribute significantly to the country's economic growth. By joining the workforce, women add to the overall productivity and output of the economy, leading to higher levels of economic development.
4. The decrease in the dependency ratio, resulting from a decline in the proportion of dependents relative to the working-age population, leads to an increase in per capita GDP. With fewer dependents to support, each working individual has a higher share of economic output, resulting in an overall increase in the average income level in the country.

The theory of demographic transition outlines the population trends of a country over time, suggesting that nations pass through distinct stages of population growth. These stages are characterized by changes in birth rates, death rates, and overall population size. The theory posits that as a country undergoes economic and social development, its demographic patterns evolve through several stages. The stages of demographic transition are as follows:

Stage 1: High Stationary Stage

• Both birth rates and death rates are high, resulting in stable population growth.
• Economy relies on agriculture or similar primary occupations, with limited development in other sectors.
• Educational opportunities are limited, and fertility rates are high, leading to large families.
• Lack of sanitation, prevalence of contagious diseases, and malnutrition contribute to high death rates.
• At present, no country falls in this category.

Stage 2: Early Expanding Stage

• Technological advancements and developments in healthcare lead to a reduction in mortality rates.
• Birth rates remain high, leading to rapid population growth.
• Agricultural and industrial production increases, and transportation networks expand.
• Efforts to control population growth are initiated.
• Developing countries with high populations are currently experiencing this phase.
• For example, Countries like Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda, Niger, etc. are presently in this stage

Stage 3: Late Expanding Stage

• Death rates continue to decrease, and birth rates start to decline.
• Population growth rate slows down, but population still increases due to higher birth rates.
• Rising income levels and improved standard of living.
• Secondary and tertiary activities expand, and education levels increase.
• Adoption of family planning leads to smaller family sizes.
• Countries transitioning from developing to developed status are in this stage.
• For example, China, India.

Stage 4: Low Stationary Stage

• Birth rates further decrease, and the standard of living improves significantly.
• Economy shifts towards secondary and tertiary occupations.
• Death rates are low due to advanced medical facilities and health consciousness.
• Population growth becomes minimal.
• Developed countries like the USA are currently in this phase.

Stage 5: Declining Stage

• Birth rates are very low, almost equaling death rates.
• Population growth is minimal or negative.
• Population aging becomes significant.
• High standard of living, with a focus on quality education and healthcare.
• Tertiary activities dominate the economy.
• Countries like Sweden, Finland, and Japan are in this stage.

As India has become the most populous country in the world, it faces both opportunities and challenges. The projected increase in the working-age population presents a demographic dividend that can drive economic growth if harnessed effectively through strategic policies and investments in education, healthcare, and employment opportunities. Moreover, the evolving gender dynamics, as reflected in changing sex ratios and women's participation in the labor force, underscore the importance of gender-sensitive policies in ensuring inclusive development and addressing socio-economic disparities.