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01 Sep 2025 : Ukraine as a battle between America and Washington

 Editorial 2: Ukraine as a battle between America and Washington

Context

The limited concrete steps Donald Trump has taken toward peace reflect the influence of ‘permanent Washington’ interests, which constrain the fulfillment of his campaign promises.

 

Introduction

The Alaska summit on August 15, 2025, was shaped less by a direct U.S.-Russia or U.S.-Europe diplomatic contest, and more by the question of how much Mr. Trump would concede to Russia. While he agreed to Putin’s conditions—no ceasefire without a permanent peace agreement and no NATO presence in Ukraine—this fell short of Trump’s 2024 campaign promise to end the war immediately.

 

Limits of U.S. Presidential Power and the Domestic Contest Shaping Global Security

  • Potential Path to Peace: Mr. Trump could have satisfied his base by offering incentives to Moscow to halt its advance while leveraging arms and intelligence support to influence Kyiv.
  • Limits of Presidential Power: His failure to secure peace highlights the constraints on the U.S. President in implementing the platform on which he was democratically elected.
  • Domestic Power Struggle: These constraints stem from an internal contest in the U.S., likely to shape future global security more than internal struggles in any other country.
  • America-First vs. Permanent Washington: The struggle pits the anti-interventionist, America-First campagainst the entrenched interests of ‘permanent Washington’, the very establishment Trump rose to power criticizing.
  • Implications for Global Policy: This domestic contest will also influence U.S. responses to major global shifts, including India’s rise and other strategic developments.

 

From 2024 on

  • Trump’s 2024 Campaign Promise: During the 2024 presidential campaign, Mr. Trump pledged to end the Ukraine war “on my first day in office” and even “before I enter office”, a notable stance given the widespread Western media opposition to peace talks with Russia.
  • Public Support for Peace: Trump’s position aligned with public sentiment: a Quincy Institute survey in early 2024 found that 66% of Americans supported a negotiated end to the war, even if it required compromises with Russia.
  • Shift Toward Domestic Priorities: This reflects a broader American trend favoring the curtailment of global military interventions and a reallocation of resources domestically. In fact, six of the last eight U.S. presidential elections were won by candidates advocating a less interventionist foreign policy.
  • Anti-Interventionist Philosophy: The stance supports allowing other major powers like India, China, and Russia to maintain regional influence while the U.S. focuses on its own hemisphere and domestic priorities.

 

The Trump approach versus factors

Theme

Analysis

Anti-Interventionism and MAGA

Central to Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) movement; championed by Vice-President J.D. Vance and Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. Trump’s election win seen as a popular endorsement of peace, marking a clear divergence from Joe Biden’s foreign policy.

Diplomatic Optics and Narrative

Despite a clear mandate and Russia’s straightforward demands, Trump’s approach has been inconsistent. He made some progress in optics: challenged Ukraine’s deification (criticizing Zelenskyy) and reduced Russia demonisation (Alaska Summit), helping to re-normalise U.S. diplomacy with rivals.

Concrete Policy Actions

Actions toward peace have been limited: briefly halted weapons shipments and intelligence sharingwith Ukraine, but continued funding Kyiv’s defense, implemented secondary sanctions on India for Russian oil purchases, and entertained post-war security guarantees for Ukraine, which were largely unfeasible.

Domestic Power Struggle

Trump’s dithering reflects a contest between MAGA supporters and ‘permanent Washington’, a coalition of commercial and ideological interests prioritizing military action, spending, and global hegemony, represented by neo-con politicians and establishment civil servants embedded in his administration.

Internal Conflicts

The struggle often unfolds within individuals, including Trump himself, balancing anti-interventionist pledges with entrenched U.S. foreign policy norms.

A clash

  • Alaska Summit as an Example: The summit highlighted the clash between two forces within U.S. foreign policy, resulting in a compromised outcome.
  • Trump’s Objectives: Mr. Trump achieved his desired optics—a red carpet welcome for Mr. Putin, reminiscent of Cold War-era summits, portraying himself as a peacemaker-statesman and fulfilling his promises to the American public.
  • Impact on Russia and the War: While no concessions were granted to Russia, the arrangement allowed the war to continue, ensuring the ongoing influence of ‘permanent Washington’ interests.

 

Conclusion

The war in Ukraine represents the closest the world has ever approached a global nuclear crisis. Moving away from this precipice will not hinge on intricate international negotiations alone. Within the United States, complex domestic power struggles are unfolding, and ultimately, the resolution will be shaped less by the rivalry between America and Russia than by internal contests within Washington itself. Similarly, many of the major geo-strategic battles in the coming decades are likely to be influenced as much by domestic American politics as by external conflicts.