Editorial 2: ​​​​In a changing world, it is ‘small tables, big dividends’

Context

With bilateral diplomacy remaining challenging, India’s strongest opportunities lie in diplomatic white spaces.

Introduction

On January 26, 2026, Kartavya Path will signal more than ceremony, with the EU’s institutional leadership - representing a 27-member bloc; as chief guests, breaking with tradition. This underscores a wider reality: bilateral diplomacy will remain difficult, the neighbourhood will need constant attention, and ties with Washington and Beijing will continue to face trade and strategic frictions.

India’s Opportunity in Diplomatic White Spaces

• India’s most promising opportunities may lie in diplomatic white spaces.
• These are gaps in global leadership where challenges demand coordination, yet no major power can credibly lead.
• Such arenas resemble crowded rooms without a convenor, marked by fragmentation rather than direction.
• In these spaces, India can act through coalitions to help shape rules and provide global public goods.
• Success will depend on selecting priorities that India has the capacity and consistency to sustain over time.

Working with Europe: India’s First Test

• Europe is the first major test of India’s approach to diplomatic white spaces.
• The presence of Ursula von der Leyen and António Luís Santos da Costa on January 26 signals renewed intent to advance the long-pending India–EU Free Trade Agreement.
• While ties with Berlin, Paris, or Rome remain important, India’s most decisive engagement will be with the European Union’s collective authority over trade, competition, and climate policy.
• The agreement goes beyond tariffs, encompassing market access rules, data standards, and sustainability requirements.
• If framed as a de-risking compact, the payoff is threefold:
  • Stronger access to European markets
  • Deeper integration into reconfigured global value chains
  • Partial insulation from potential U.S. trade pressures
• The trade-off will be higher compliance burdens for Indian firms.
• The European window is open because the EU seeks to reduce dependence on China and hedge against U.S. unpredictability by strengthening ties with India.
• Speed matters—for Delhi, this is a moment to act decisively, because windows do not stay open indefinitely.

BRICS and the Quad: India’s Next Diplomatic Tests

BRICS: The Political White Space

• Europe tests India’s technocratic capacity; BRICS is the political test of its white space diplomacy.
• BRICS in 2026 is larger but less cohesive—expansion has increased reach while diverging priorities have blurred focus.
• The central challenge is purpose: what is BRICS for, and can India help define it?
• Member demands are legitimate—a stronger Global South voice, fairer representation, and credible development finance alternatives—but the direction remains contested.
• As chair and host in 2026, India can push delivery over declarations by:
  • Leveraging New Development Bank guarantees
  • Creating practical toolkits that translate communiqués into action
• External risks are real. U.S. tariff threats against countries perceived as aligning with BRICS raise the cost of careless signalling.
• India gains little from anti-West rhetoric or a de-dollarisation crusade, which could undermine capital and technology inflows.
• The task is balance: reform is not rejection.

The Quad: From Alignment to Delivery

• The third white space is the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.
• If India hosts a Quad leaders’ summit, it could include Donald Trump, adding political weight and raising expectations for outcomes.
• The Quad’s focus on maritime domain awareness and resilient ports directly serves Indian Ocean littoral statesseeking capacity without entanglement in great-power rivalry.
• India can make the Quad useful by turning capabilities into services that partners can access and deploy.
• Operation Sagar Bandhu after Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka showed the value of retaskable assets delivered without diplomatic drama.
• Sustained success will depend on Washington managing trade frictions without disrupting broader cooperation.

Big Forums, Smaller Coalitions

• Large platforms face limits. The United Nations remains vital for legitimacy and norms, but is weak on delivery amid major-power rivalry.
• Outcomes are shifting to coalitions that can move when the centre cannot.
• The G-20 shows similar strain—domestic politics and agenda fights dilute effectiveness.
• The U.S. boycott of the Johannesburg G-20 in 2025 and efforts to narrow the agenda in 2026 risk sidestepping Global South priorities.

Turning White Spaces into Results

• In a volatile world, India’s momentum in 2026 will come from operationalising white spaces.
• Europe is about standards, BRICS about functionality, and the Quad about delivering public goods.

The Message for India

• The AI Impact Summit in Delhi (February 2026) offers India a platform to bring governments, companies, and researchers together, narrowing divides where interests overlap.
• As Washington experiments with new forums, including Donald Trump’s proposed “Board of Peace” focused on peacebuilding, India will need to choose its engagements carefully.
• An invitation for India to join Pax Silica—a U.S.-led capability club on artificial intelligence and semiconductor supply chains—signals how rapidly new diplomatic tables are emerging.
• In a fragmented global order, it is not the largest forums that shape outcomes, but smaller, focused groupings where decisions translate into action.
• In 2026, India’s edge will lie in selecting the right tables—and making them work.

Conclusion

In a fragmented global order, India’s diplomatic advantage will lie not in grand alignments but in smart coalition-building. By identifying diplomatic white spaces, prioritising delivery over rhetoric, and balancing reform with restraint, India can convert small tables into big dividends, shaping outcomes even as traditional power centres struggle to lead.