Editorial 2: Shifting sands

Context

India’s policy towards West Asia should prioritise stability and balanced partnerships.

Introduction

The signing of a mutual defence agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan marks a pivotal moment in West Asia’s security landscape. It institutionalises a history of military cooperation and financial support, while signalling a shift amid waning U.S. guarantees. Against the backdrop of Israel’s actions and regional turbulence, the pact highlights evolving alliances and strategic recalibrations.

Strategic Significance of the Agreement

• A mutual defence pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan declares that “any aggression against one is aggression against both.”
• Institutionalises a long-standing partnership:
  • Saudi Arabia – custodian of Islam’s holiest mosques.
  • Pakistan – the Islamic world’s only nuclear power.
• Past ties include military training by Pakistan and financial assistance by Riyadh, including support for Islamabad’s nuclear programme.

Shifting Regional Security Landscape

• The deal was announced soon after Israel bombed Qatar, signalling regional turbulence.
• U.S. credibility questioned:
  • Declining commitment to West Asia.
  • 2019 Saudi oil attack by Iranian allies met with U.S. inaction.
  • Israel’s strike on Qatar (home to America’s largest base) accelerated realignments.
• Reflects the erosion of the old U.S.-centric framework of security guarantees.

Strategic Realignments and Implications

• Abraham Accords sought to unite Arab monarchies with Israel against Iran.
• Expected Saudi participation was derailed by Hamas’s 2023 attack and Israel’s Gaza war.
• With this pact, Saudi Arabia signals to Washington and Tel Aviv its intent to diversify alliances.
• For Pakistan:
  • Gains financial support from Riyadh.
  • Positions itself as a security provider in the Gulf.

India’s Concerns and Policy Imperatives

• India–Pakistan conflict (May) makes this pact geopolitically sensitive.
• India’s pro-Israel tilt contrasts with Arab monarchies’ hedging strategy.
• Risks:
  • Agreement’s scope unclear—whether it extends a nuclear umbrella or promises reciprocal defence.
  • Possibility of entrapment: Pakistan dragged into West Asia’s crisis; Saudi Arabia into South Asian conflicts.
• For India:
  • Avoid doubling down on an isolated Israel.
  • Must uphold strategic balance and focus on regional stability in its West Asia policy.

Conclusion

The Saudi–Pakistan defence pact reflects the realignments shaping West Asia amid declining U.S. credibility and faltering Abraham Accords. For Pakistan, it brings financial backing and a role as a security provider; for Saudi Arabia, diversified alliances. Yet, risks of entrapment remain. For India, the priority must be strategic balance, avoiding overreliance on Israel, and fostering long-term regional stability.