Editorial 2: Resumption of India-China Direct Flights
Context:
After more than five years, India and China are set to resume direct flights by the end of October 2025, marking a significant development in bilateral connectivity and economic engagement.
Resumption of air flights:
- The Ministry of External Affairs recently announced that an agreement had been reached to allow the resumption of flights in line with the winter season schedule, beginning October 26.
- The agreement, however, remains contingent on the commercial decisions of designated carriers and adherence to operational criteria.
- India's largest airline, IndiGo, has announced plans to operate daily flights from Kolkata to Guangzhou from October 26.
- Meanwhile, Air India, now privatized under the Tata Group, is expected to start Delhi-Shanghai services by the end of the year, with Chinese airlines also anticipated to commence flights to India.
Cancellation of air flights:
- Direct air connectivity between India and China was initially suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted global aviation.
- The relationship between the two nations further complicated the resumption of flights after the 2020 standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
- Although China had been advocating for direct flight restoration for several years, India was initially hesitant.
- The decision to resume flights reflects a gradual thaw in bilateral relations, coinciding with a period of complex dynamics in India’s relations with the United States
Roadblocks in direct flight resumptions:
- The matter of resuming flights has been raised in multiple high-level meetings. Discussions between foreign and aviation ministers throughout 2024 yielded limited progress.
- Key engagements included a September 2024 meeting between India’s Civil Aviation Minister K. Ram Mohan Naidu and Song Zhiyong, Administrator of China’s Civil Aviation Administration.
- Subsequently, in November 2024, discussions between Foreign Ministers S. Jaishankar and Wang Yi at the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro coincided with the announcement of a border patrolling arrangement on October 21, signaling de-escalation.
- Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping also met at the BRICS Summit in Russia shortly after, underscoring the improved diplomatic climate.
- The first tangible steps toward restoration came during Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s visit to Beijing in January 2025, where both sides agreed “in principle” to resume direct flights.
- Further progress was reported during Wang Yi’s visit to New Delhi in August, when both countries committed to resuming services “at the earliest” and facilitating visa processes for tourists, business travelers, media, and other visitors.
Implications for Airlines and Passengers:
- The resumption of flights is expected to benefit both Indian and Chinese airlines, which have closely monitored developments. Chinese carriers are eager to return to the direct flight market.
- Prior to the COVID-19 suspension, direct flights accounted for over 45% of total passenger traffic between the two countries.
- Airlines now aim not only to reclaim lost market share but also to expand operations.
- The absence of direct connectivity, coupled with stringent visa restrictions, caused airlines on both sides to lose potential passengers.
- Presently, all India-China travel occurs via connecting hubs in South and Southeast Asia, reducing traffic to less than half of pre-2019 levels.
- Airlines from countries such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam have capitalized on this gap, with some hubs recording higher India-China traffic in 2024 than in 2019.
- Hong Kong airport, a key transit point, is particularly notable as it is not a mainland Chinese airport and operates under a separate visa regime.
- The return of direct flights is likely to intensify competition, generally resulting in lower airfares, more frequent flight options, and greater convenience for passengers.
- Consumers are expected to benefit from enhanced service frequency, reduced travel times, and improved route options, while airlines gain the opportunity to reclaim revenue and increase operational efficiency.
Traffic Patterns and Market Dynamics:
- Beijing appears to anticipate that Chinese airlines stand to gain the most, as they historically dominated the direct flight market.
- In December 2019, there were 539 scheduled direct flights per month between India and China, offering over 1.25 lakh cumulative seats.
- Indian carriers—primarily IndiGo and Air India—operated 168 flights, accounting for around 31% of total services, while Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern, China Southern, and Shandong Airlines, managed the majority.
- However, industry analysts suggest that the earlier dominance of Chinese carriers may not be repeated due to significant changes in India’s aviation sector since 2019.
- Air India, now a privatized and financially stronger entity, has ambitious plans for rapid international expansion.
- Similarly, IndiGo continues to strengthen its global network, positioning itself as a significant competitor in the India-China route.
Way Forward:
The resumption of India-China direct flights is a landmark step in the ongoing normalization of bilateral relations, with far-reaching implications for commerce, tourism, and people-to-people connectivity. Chinese carriers may have a historical advantage, but India’s evolving aviation landscape suggests a more balanced and competitive market. Overall, direct flights signal not just logistical convenience but also a strategic and economic thaw between the two Asian powers.