Editorial 2: Building a city of the future
Context:
India’s urban population account for about 37% of its total population in 2023. By 2050, it is expected to increase to more than 50% of its total population. Today, the urban areas are extremely vulnerable to floods, extreme heat, cyclones, landslides, and earthquakes. India must ensure that the new infrastructure build to accommodate this increased urban population should be resilient to climate change. It will have profound impact on cities and its inhabitants.
Increased urbanization in India:
- By 2030, Indian cities are expected to generate over 70% o new jobs. By 2050, the urban population in India is expected to increase to one billion. Some megacities are expected to exceed the individual countries in term of its population.
- In the backdrop of this increased pace of urbanization, India must draw the strategy for building a blueprint for future cities covering areas such as climate resilient infrastructure, modern municipal services.
- India needs to build new infrastructure for its expected increased urban population. It has very narrow window of opportunity to build this infrastructure. By 2070, India needs to build over 144 million new homes, more than double the existing stock. It also needs to improve transportation services, municipal services that cater to these unprecedented numbers.
- This infrastructure needs to withstand the growing impacts of climate change. Thus, it is essential to make early investments in climate resilient urban design and infrastructure. This will reduce the loss of lives and property in future calamities such as floods, extreme heat.
Floods in urban areas:
- Floods are becoming common in many cities including the cosmopolitans such as Delhi, Gurugram, Chennai, and Mumbai.
- More than two-third population in urban dwellers will face the risk of surface flooding, leading to the losses of $5 billion by 2030 and $30 billion by 2070.
- An integrated approach can prevent the hazard of floods in urban areas. It involves demarcation high-risk areas as no-built zones improve city-wide drainage, promote nature based solutions that can absorb excess rainwater, and install flood-warning systems.
- Brazil, which has the urban population of 80%, had moved beyond channelization and structural flood control towards this more integrated approach.
- Kolkata has a city-level early warning system and flood forecasting system Chennai is also taking similar steps such as improving flood preparations to support the most vulnerable position.
- India needs to adopt and follow these successful models of flood prevention and mitigation in urban areas.
Extreme temperatures in urban habitats:
- Due to the global warming and the urban heat island effects, temperature in urban areas during nighttimes increase by 3°C compared to surrounding areas year-round.
- Ahmadabad has successfully avert thousands of death, increased the economic productivity, even during peak summer months. It has adopted the Heat action plan, which focuses on increasing tree canopies, replacing heat intensifying roofs with easily doable roofs, and shifting the working hours of outdoor laborers.
- Today urban areas face calamities such as floods, extreme heat, cyclones, and earthquakes. Since half of the urban housing infrastructure required by 2070 is yet to be build, these housing units must be well planned, located, designed, constructed and maintained. This will have positive impact on cities and their inhabitants. It will also make these cities more prosperous, inclusive and climate-resilient.
Transport system in urban cities:
- The efficiency of transportation boosts the economic and overall productivity of city and its people. More than 35% of its urban roads are prone to floods. In some cities, more than 50% of traffic is disrupted if just 10% to 20% of roads are inundated.
- Mapping flood risks, improving drainage, investing in flood protection and road maintenance may avert climate induced-disruptions to economic activity.
Municipal services:
- Large investment is needed to modernize municipal services such as waste collection, improving the quality of air, water and soil enrichment. It will have positive impact on urban productivity and quality of life.
Way Forward:
India need to build its institutional capacity, promote collaborations and get the support of government, citizens and the private sector. It will bring efficiency, innovative financing and technical capacity to build the urban infrastructure. Investing in development of climate-resilient and low-carbon infrastructure and services has the potential to save billions of dollars and attract new investments, generating new jobs, fostering innovation, and unlocking to India’s potential for future economic growth.