Editorial 2 : On Air, Connect the Dots
Context: India’s winter season is traditionally marked by deteriorating air quality, particularly in North India, as a combination of meteorological and anthropogenic factors converges to create smog and pollution episodes. This autumn witnessed better air quality compared to previous years due to many factors. However, this must be seen in a larger climatic and environmental context that signals potential worsening in the coming months.
Factors responsible for this short-term improvement in air quality:
- This short-term improvement may be attributed to warmer-than-usual weather and a timely withdrawal of the monsoon, both of which contributed to better atmospheric dispersion.
- In recent years, delayed monsoon withdrawal has become more common, often leading to stagnant air, lower wind speeds, and higher humidity conditions that trap pollutants near the surface.
- This year, however, the monsoon withdrew relatively on time, ensuring sustained air movement and dilution of pollutants.
- This created a marginally favorable situation compared to the severe smog episodes seen around Diwali in earlier years.
El Niño, La Niña, and Transition Effects:
- According to recent studies by the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS) and the System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research (SAFAR), the past few years have been influenced by El Niño conditions, which tend to elevate surface temperatures and alter rainfall patterns.
- Now, as the climatic phase transitions towards a weak La Niña, a new set of challenges emerges.
- A weak La Niña, though typically associated with cooler global temperatures, can also prolong winters in India and lead to extended periods of stagnant air.
- This stagnation hampers vertical and horizontal mixing in the lower atmosphere, allowing pollutants from vehicles, biomass burning, and industrial sources to accumulate.
- Therefore, while the Diwali period may have seen relatively cleaner air, the coming winter could witness a renewed surge in pollution levels.
Stubble Burning and Delayed Harvest:
One of the critical anthropogenic contributors to North India’s air pollution crisis remains stubble burning in Punjab and Haryana.
- The erratic rainfall and climate shifts have delayed the paddy harvest this year.
- As a result, the burning of crop residue is expected to peak later than usual in late October and November coinciding with falling temperatures and lower wind speeds.
- This overlap between climatic stagnation and agricultural emissions poses a significant threat to air quality in the Indo-Gangetic plains and the Delhi-NCR region.
- Despite ongoing policy efforts and incentives to curb stubble burning, enforcement challenges persist, and sustainable alternatives for crop residue management remain limited.
Holistic Air Quality Management Strategy:
- India’s air pollution problem is not limited to local emissions but is part of a broader climate-air interaction system.
- Warmer global temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and urban heat island effects exacerbate pollution retention.
- Effective mitigation, therefore, demands that climate change adaptation and air quality policies be interlinked.
- Strengthening early warning systems, improving crop residue utilization (for bioenergy or compost), promoting electric mobility, and expanding green buffers are essential components of a sustainable response.
Long term challenge of Air pollution:
- While Diwali 2025 may have witnessed better air conditions than in previous years, this is no cause for complacency.
- The weak La Niña phase, delayed crop residue burning, and cooling temperatures could create an environment conducive to prolonged smog episodes in November and December.
- Policymakers, therefore, must act proactively, guided by integrated data and scientific forecasting.
Way forward:
India’s air quality challenges cannot be addressed through isolated or seasonal interventions. Instead, they require a connected, climate-aware strategy that accounts for meteorological patterns, agricultural practices, and urban emissions together. India may hope to achieve lasting improvements in air quality and public health by taking into account climate variability, human behaviour, and environmental policy.