Editorial 1: Unstable World, Stable Partner
Context:
In an era marked by shifting global power structures and recurring geopolitical uncertainties, India’s partnership with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) stands out as a pillar of stability and mutual trust. As the Indo-Pacific region witnesses heightened strategic competition, particularly between the United States and China, the relevance of ASEAN and India’s engagement with it, has become central to ensuring a free, open, and inclusive regional order.
Evolution of India–ASEAN Relations:
- India’s engagement with ASEAN began in 1992 when it became a sectoral dialogue partner, and by 1995, it had achieved full dialogue partnership status.
- The relationship gathered momentum with the launch of the “Look East Policy” in the early 1990s under Prime Minister P. V. Narasimha Rao.
- The policy was designed to enhance economic and strategic cooperation with the dynamic economies of Southeast Asia.
- In 2002, India participated in the first ASEAN–India Summit at Phnom Penh, which elevated the relationship to the highest political level.
- A decade later, during the 20th anniversary of India–ASEAN ties in 2012, the partnership was upgraded to a “Strategic Partnership.”
- Since then, the association has expanded to encompass security, trade, connectivity, and cultural cooperation.
- In 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi articulated India’s vision of a “Free, Open, and Inclusive Indo-Pacific,” aligning closely with ASEAN’s “Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP)”, which emphasizes dialogue and cooperation over confrontation.
Economic and Strategic relations:
- ASEAN collectively represents one of the world’s most dynamic economic blocs, accounting for nearly 3.5 trillion USD in GDP and serving as a crucial hub of global trade.
- India’s trade with ASEAN exceeds 110 billion USD (as of 2023), making the bloc India’s fourth-largest trading partner.
- Despite this, the potential for deeper integration remains high, particularly in emerging sectors such as digital technology, renewable energy, and resilient supply chains.
- Strategically, ASEAN forms the geographic and political centre of the Indo-Pacific, a region that hosts critical maritime routes through which nearly 40% of global trade passes.
- For India, engagement with ASEAN complements its Act East Policy, an evolution of the earlier Look East Policy, which seeks to strengthen connectivity through projects such as the India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project.
- These initiatives not only improve physical connectivity but also advance India’s strategic presence in Southeast Asia.
ASEAN’s Role in a Fragmented Global Order:
- The present geopolitical environment is increasingly unstable.
- The rise of China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea, coupled with the growing US–China rivalry, has created deep strategic anxieties within ASEAN.
- While countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia emphasize maritime security, others seek to maintain a balance by deepening ties with multiple partners, including India, Japan, and Australia.
- ASEAN’s policy of “centrality” with its determination to remain the core of regional decision-making, aligns with India’s vision of multipolarity and non-alignment.
- India, as the only Quad member with a strong history of engagement with ASEAN, is viewed as a “stable partner in an unstable world.”
Diplomatic and Military relations:
- Prime Minister Modi’s proactive diplomacy since 2014 has reinvigorated India–ASEAN relations.
- He has consistently attended the East Asia Summit (EAS) and emphasized the need for cooperative solutions to regional challenges.
- The inclusion of maritime security, disaster management, and counterterrorism in India–ASEAN dialogue frameworks illustrates the broadening of the partnership beyond economic interests.
- India’s soft power through Buddhism, cultural linkages, diaspora networks, and initiatives such as the ASEAN-India Youth Summit further enhances people-to-people connectivity.
- The naval exercise INS Sudarshini’s expedition to ASEAN countries and the celebration of the ASEAN-India Friendship Year (2022) symbolize this enduring cultural bond.
Challenges and opportunities for India and ASEAN countries:
- Despite the progress, trade imbalances, slow project implementation, and bureaucratic hurdles have limited the full potential of the partnership.
- Moreover, ASEAN’s internal divisions and India’s cautious economic approach, as seen in its withdrawal from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), have raised concerns about India’s long-term economic commitment.
- To consolidate its position, India must strengthen physical, digital, and energy connectivity with ASEAN, promote supply chain resilience, and support ASEAN’s centrality in the Indo-Pacific architecture.
- Expanding cooperation in green technologies, defence production, and education can add new depth to the relationship.
Way forward:
India and ASEAN together represent a vision of balance, inclusivity, and stability. Their partnership transcends transactional diplomacy, it is a convergence of civilizations and a commitment to peace in the Indo-Pacific. As global power equations continue to shift, India’s steady engagement with ASEAN will remain not just a strategic necessity but a reflection of its larger aspiration to shape an equitable and rules-based regional order.