Editorial 2: The Company Pakistan Keeps
Context:
Pakistan has increased its engagement with US and signed the military pact with Saudi Arabia. This changing geopolitics situation provide India valuable lesson of how pragmatically tweak its foreign policy to prioritize its domestic interest.
Transactional Bilateral relations between Pakistan and US:
- The recent bonhomie between the United States and Pakistan, marked by high-profile meetings between US President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Army Chief Asim Munir, signals the beginning of another transactional phase in a long and chequered relationship.
- History has shown that while the US and Pakistan have never had a genuine strategic convergence, their periodic alignments have often resulted in damaging outcomes for regional peace and stability.
- During the Cold War, US financial and military support transformed Pakistan’s army into a praetorian force, encouraging adventurism both domestically and externally.
- Later, the “Afghan jihad” not only strengthened extremist zealots but unleashed forces of radicalization that continue to haunt South Asia and the wider world.
- In the post-9/11 “War on Terror,” Pakistan played a duplicitous role, receiving US aid while simultaneously sheltering and facilitating the Taliban, thereby enabling their eventual return to power in Kabul.
- Despite these experiences, Washington appears once again drawn toward Rawalpindi, exemplifying a recurring cycle of fatal attraction.
Reasons for present engagement:
- The present phase seems to have originated with the Trump family’s interest in Pakistan’s crypto industry, which provided a personal connection to the White House.
- Building on this, Pakistan offered the lure of critical minerals, leading to a recent $500 million US investment.
- Islamabad also played to Trump’s ego by endorsing his claims of preventing an India-Pakistan war in May and nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
- Official statements from Islamabad about Sharif’s meeting with Trump referred to investment opportunities in agriculture, IT, mining, and energy, alongside counterterrorism cooperation.
- However, the economic substance appears limited: overall bilateral trade is only around $57 billion annually, and talk of Pakistan’s “massive oil reserves” is misleading, given the absence of proven resources and security challenges to exploration.
- The security dimension seems more significant. Trump’s lavish treatment of Munir suggests that counterterrorism may not be the only agenda. There may be collaboration on Afghanistan, where the US has struggled to secure access to bases such as Bagram.
- At the same time, Pakistan’s ties with the Taliban are fraying due to cross-border attacks. A convergence of interests could therefore emerge, with the US and Pakistan working together to pressure Kabul.
Military Pact with Saudi Arabia:
- Pakistan recently signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia.
- Its subtext hints at the possibility of Pakistan extending a nuclear umbrella to Riyadh, a development that surprisingly has not provoked strong non-proliferation concerns in Washington.
- This silence could imply tacit US acceptance, possibly seeing Pakistan as part of broader American-led security architecture in West Asia.
- Moreover, Trump has presented a 21-point Gaza stabilization plan and may envision Pakistan contributing troops to an international force there. Sharif’s public praise for Trump’s Gaza peace efforts aligns with this reading.
- However, the road ahead for Pakistan will be complex.
- It’s deepening embrace of Washington risks creating friction with China. Its Belt and Road investments, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), are central to Pakistan’s economy.
- Additionally, any significant Pakistani role in West Asia risks entangling it in the region’s volatile conflicts at a time when its domestic security environment remains fragile.
Lessons for India:
- For India, the rekindling of US-Pakistan ties is a matter of concern. In the past, US military and financial assistance to Pakistan has emboldened Islamabad to adopt aggressive policies towards New Delhi.
- Renewed Saudi investment in Pakistan’s defence industry or American aid flows could recreate a similar dynamic.
- Furthermore, India considers West Asia its extended neighbourhood, vital for energy supplies and its large Diaspora.
- Any Pakistani role in the region’s security architecture under US auspices would directly affect Indian interests.
- Historically, whenever Pakistan has enjoyed a stable equation with its major partners, it has felt emboldened to act adventurously against India.
- Hence, India must closely monitor these developments and adopt strategies to safeguard its own regional interests.
Way Forward:
Pakistan, after years of being cornered due to its terrorist links and internal crises, now seems to be slowly regaining geopolitical space. With China’s steady backing, its new defence pact with Saudi Arabia, and warming ties with the US, it is emerging from isolation. India must prioritize domestic economy reforms and use the international forums such as United Nations to corner Pakistan for promoting cross-border terrorism.