Editorial 2: Thinking beyond population count

Context

The time has come to go beyond population size as the lone yardstick of allocation and determination of political representation

Introduction

The discussion on delimitation and financial devolution has caused a stir in Parliament and some State Assemblies, raising concerns about the federal structure of our country. The development gap in India also impacts the demographic divide, which should be considered in decisions about delimitation and financial devolution. The end of the constitutional freeze on the number of parliamentary seats is approaching, creating worries about the political representation of peninsular States and those in the north.

Impact of Population Growth on Lok Sabha Representation and Delimitation

• Between 1951 and 1971, the number of Lok Sabha seats in India was increased to match the rising population, improving population representation per seat.
• The population per seat increased from 7.3 lakh in 1951 to 10.1 lakh in 1971, when the number of seats reached the current total of 543.
• The freeze on the number of seats has been in place since 1971 and will last until 2026.
• Based on the population growth trend, the total number of seats in 2026 is projected to be 753, with the population representation per seat expected to rise to around 20 lakh.
• With this higher ratio, peninsular States could have a reduced share of seats compared to states like Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar, which are lagging in demographic progress.

Political representation

• The concern about political representation is real and was first addressed by the 15th Finance Commission.
• The Commission faced this issue when the population weight in the devolution exercise was shifted from 1971 data to 2011 data.
• The Commission recommended adding weightage for demographic performance alongside population performance.
• As a result, the population component's weight was increased from 0.15 to 0.27.
• This adjustment aims to balance the representation between States with high populations but poor demographic performance and States with lower populations but better demographic outcomes.

Reevaluating Population Size as the Sole Basis for Political Representation

• The time has come to move beyond using population size as the only criterion for allocation and political representation.
• The argument that southern States will not lose seats while northern States will gain seats during the delimitation exercise is flawed.
• There are multiple concerns to address in the delimitation process:
  1. Average Representation of Population:
     • Should every seat represent an average 20 lakh population?
     • Consideration of adopting an upper limit for representational strength, ensuring the Lok Sabha size expands with population growth.
  2. Regional Distribution:
     • The focus is on regional distribution without distorting representation too much.
     • A possible middle ground could be using population density rather than absolute population numbers.
  3. Population Density as a Factor:
     • Population density could be a better measure, especially in regions like the northeast, where lower population size is balanced by higher population density compared to urban areas.
     • This method could lead to a more equitable representation.
  4. Status Quo and Adjustments:
     • Maintaining the current system may still require a proportional increase in seat allocation.
     • A target with an aggregate population representation per seat could be set to guide these changes.

Comparison of Options for Population Representation

Rethinking Population Count as the Sole Basis for Allocation and Devolution

• The demographic wisdom suggests moving beyond population count as the only criterion for allocation or devolution.
• In the 15th Finance Commission’s devolution exercise, this was debated, leading to the introduction of demographic performance in the population component.
• A crucial consideration is the characteristics and composition of the population, not just the raw numbers.
• The proposed delimitation and allocation exercise must account for gender and caste-based reservations, adding complexity to the process.
• Standardizing based on population count leads to misleading per capita measures, often failing to reflect real needs.
• This trend is becoming more prevalent in the SDG (Sustainable Development Goals) environment, where indicators are often generated indiscriminately.
• The per-capita hangover creates problems in making scientific comparisons across time or regions.
• Characteristics and composition of the population are vital for assessing needs, entitlements, rights, and privileges.
• Using raw population count without considering these differences results in treating unequals as equals.

Issues with Population Count as a Sole Criterion

Conclusion: A demographic outlook

Studying a population demographically means looking at all its characteristics to compare and understand differences, not just counting people. Population is more than just numbers—it affects representation and resource distribution, which is often ignored. That’s why a demographic perspective is crucial for addressing ongoing debates and issues.