Editorial 1: ​​Changing the frame

Context

India should leverage forecasts to strengthen disaster preparedness.

Introduction

India’s 2025 monsoon brought 8% above-normal rainfall, boosting kharif crop cultivation and reservoir storage. While this appears as agricultural prosperity, torrential rains caused flooding, landslides, and erosion, devastating communities. Uneven distribution, misuse of terms like “cloudburst”, and inadequate disaster preparedness highlight the need for a shift in viewing excess rainfall as risk rather than blessing.

Monsoon Rainfall and Agriculture

• Above Normal Rainfall: India received 8% more rainfall than the long-period average this year.
• Kharif Crop Expansion:
  • Total sown area rose by 15 lakh hectares, reaching 1,110 lakh hectares.
  • Rice cultivation increased by 8.45 lakh hectares (from 430 to 438 lakh hectares).
  • Pulses, coarse cereals, and oilseeds also recorded growth.
• Reservoir Storage:
  • As of late September, water storage was 163 BCM compared to 157.8 BCM last year.
  • (1 BCM = 1 trillion litres).

Flooding and Destruction

• Torrential Rains (August–September) led to:
  • Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab facing inundation and isolation.
  • In Punjab, entire villages submerged, farmland lost.
• Widespread Disasters:
  • Landslides, flooding (urban & rural).
  • Land erosion and siltation caused colossal damage across multiple states.

Regional Rainfall Patterns

• Excess Rainfall Distribution:
  • Northwest India: 27% above normal.
  • Central India: 15% above normal.
  • South Peninsula: 10% above normal.
• Cloudburst Reports:
  • Multiple claims, but only Tamil Nadu’s case matched the meteorological definition.
  • Misuse of the term “cloudburst” distorts public perception of extreme events.

Framing of Rainfall and Preparedness

• Terminology Issues:
  • Words like “cloudburst” or “normal rainfall” often create a false sense of inevitability.
  • This framing makes disasters seem like acts of fate rather than preventable crises.
• IMD Forecasts:
  • Since April, IMD projected “above normal” rainfall (>4% more than the 87 cm average).
  • Success in forecasts is celebrated, but failure in preparedness is ignored.
• Governmental Attitude:
  • Drought warnings trigger war-footing measures.
  • Excess rainfall still seen as natural bounty instead of a disaster risk.
• Call for Change:
  • With improved forecasting technology and infrastructure capabilities,
  • Failure to act on heavy-rainfall warnings should be treated as government negligence.

Conclusion

Though excess rainfall has improved agriculture and water storage, it exposed serious flood management gaps. The government must treat heavy rainfall with the same urgency as drought, ensuring infrastructure resilience, early warning systems, and climate adaptation policies. Failure to act on forecasts is not fate but an abdication of responsibility towards public safety, livelihoods, and sustainable development.