Article 2: Missed call
Why in news: The southwest monsoon reached Kerala later than expected, while IMD forecasted below-normal rainfall (90% of LPA)amid El Niño conditions, raising concerns over agriculture, inflation, water security, and economic growth.
Key Details
- The southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on June 4, three days later than its normal onset date.
- IMD forecasts seasonal rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
- There is a 60% probability of a deficient monsoon, the most pessimistic forecast in a decade.
- Most regions, including northwest, central, peninsular India and the monsoon core zone, are expected to receive below-normal rainfall.
- The El Niño phenomenon is likely to persist during the monsoon season, increasing drought risks.
Delayed Onset of the Southwest Monsoon
- The southwest monsoon reached Kerala on June 4, three days later than its normal date.
- It also arrived four days later than the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast.
- This is the first significant forecasting error by IMD since 2015.
- A delayed onset does not necessarily indicate a weak monsoon season.
- Historical records show that both early and late monsoons can either fail or recover subsequently.
IMD Forecast Signals a Weak Monsoon
- IMD has projected seasonal rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
- There is a 60% probability of a deficient monsoon year.
- This is the agency’s most pessimistic pre-season forecast in nearly a decade.
- Only Northeast India is expected to receive normal rainfall.
- Most other regions, including the monsoon core agricultural zone, are likely to experience rainfall deficits.
Risks from Uneven Rainfall Distribution
- The total amount of rainfall is less important than its spatial and temporal distribution.
- Long dry spells between rain events can damage crops after sowing.
- Rain-fed agricultural areas are particularly vulnerable to irregular rainfall.
- Uneven monsoon patterns can affect food production and rural incomes.
- Water stress may increase despite overall seasonal rainfall appearing adequate.
Impact of El Niño and Input Supply Crisis
- El Niño conditions are expected to persist through much of the monsoon season.
- Historically, nearly 60% of El Niño years since 1951 have witnessed below-normal rainfall.
- Severe droughts in 2002 and 2009 occurred during strong El Niño events.
- The West Asia conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have affected energy and fertilizer supplies.
- Rising input costs and shortages increase the vulnerability of the agricultural sector.
Need for Preparedness and Policy Response
- The government must prepare for adverse outcomes despite hopes for a better monsoon.
- Farmers should be encouraged to cultivate short-duration pulses, oilseeds, and millets instead of water-intensive crops.
- Efficient management of groundwater and reservoirs is essential.
- Crop insurance, disaster relief measures, and contingency plans should be activated.
- A weak monsoon could worsen food inflation, water scarcity, heat stress, and pressures on the farm economy.
Conclusion
The 2026 southwest monsoon is crucial for India’s agriculture, food security, and economic stability. While a delayed onset alone is not alarming, forecasts of deficient rainfall, persistent El Niño conditions, and fertilizer supply constraints pose significant risks. Strengthening water management, promoting climate-resilient crops, ensuring input availability, and enhancing disaster preparedness will be essential to mitigate the impact of a weak monsoon.