Article 3: Turn potential double-whammy of rain and fertiliser shortfall into an opportunity
Why in news: Concerns have emerged over the possible return of El Niño and a below-normal monsoon in 2026, raising risks for rabi crop production, fertiliser availability, food security, and agricultural growth.
Key Details
- Agriculture grew strongly due to two consecutive years of above-normal monsoon rainfall.
- IMD forecasts a below-normal monsoon at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
- El Niño may intensify during winter, posing greater risks to rabi crops than kharif crops.
- Fertiliser supplies remain adequate for kharif but may face disruptions during rabi due to West Asia tensions.
- India should promote millets, pulses, and oilseeds to reduce import dependence and improve resource efficiency.
Strong Agricultural Growth Driven by Good Monsoons
- India’s agriculture sector recorded robust growth of 4.2% in 2024-25 and 3.2% in 2025-26.
- Growth was supported by two consecutive years of favourable monsoon rainfall.
- Total rainfall reached 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA) in 2024 and 110% in 2025.
- The southwest monsoon (June–September) delivered nearly 8% surplus rainfall in both years.
- Adequate rainfall boosted crop production and rural economic activity.
El Niño Raises Concerns for 2026 Monsoon
- Weather forecasts indicate the return of El Niño conditions during the current monsoon season.
- Global climate models suggest a weak-to-moderate El Niño may develop.
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected a below-normal monsoon, with rainfall likely at 90% of LPA.
- El Niño is generally associated with reduced rainfall and higher temperatures in India.
- This raises concerns about agricultural performance in the coming year.
Rabi Crops Face Greater Risk Than Kharif Crops
- The immediate impact on kharif crops may be limited as sowing has just begun.
- Stronger El Niño conditions are expected to emerge during November–January.
- El Niño often causes warmer and shorter winters, affecting winter crop growth.
- Consequently, rabi crops such as wheat, mustard, and pulses may face greater stress.
- Agricultural losses may become more visible during the winter-spring season rather than during kharif.
Fertiliser Supply and Food Inflation Challenges
- Fertiliser stocks are currently sufficient to meet kharif season requirements.
- However, disruptions caused by the West Asia conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockade may affect supplies later.
- Any fertiliser shortage is likely to impact the rabi season more significantly.
- Food inflation has remained under control due to record crop production in India and globally during 2025-26.
- Future supply disruptions could increase risks to food prices.
Opportunity to Promote Millets, Pulses and Oilseeds
- India imported a record 16.9 million tonnes of vegetable oils in 2025-26 and 7.3 million tonnes of pulses in the previous year.
- The government should promote millets, pulses, and oilseeds to reduce import dependence.
- These crops require less water and fewer fertilisers, especially urea, compared to rice, wheat, and sugarcane.
- Farmers are likely to shift cultivation if provided with assured Minimum Support Prices (MSP).
- MSP support should be linked to market-based pricing of water and fertilisers to encourage efficient resource use and sustainable agriculture.
Conclusion
The possibility of a weak monsoon and stronger El Niño conditions highlights the need for climate-resilient agriculture. India must use this challenge to diversify cropping patterns towards millets, pulses, and oilseeds, while ensuring effective MSP support and efficient resource use. Such measures can strengthen food security, reduce import dependence, and enhance the long-term sustainability of Indian agriculture.
Descriptive question:
Q. “Climate variability and external supply shocks pose increasing challenges to Indian agriculture. Discuss the likely impact of El Niño on crop production and examine policy measures needed to build a resilient agricultural sector.” (15 Marks, 250 Words)
Source: The Indian Express