Editorial 1: ​​​Indicators of Israel’s unsustainable hegemony

Context

Despite its unchallenged military dominance, Tel Aviv may turn out to be a giant built on fragile foundations.

Introduction

The recent series of Israeli military successes has created the perception that Israel has emerged as the dominant military and political power in West Asia, capable of reshaping the region to align with its interests. These include the near elimination of Hezbollah’s military wing in Lebanon, the collapse of the Assad regime and Israel’s expanded control over Syrian territory, the devastation of Gaza and crippling of Hamas’s military strength, and most notably, the near-total dismantling of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme, achieved partly with American support.

A Fragile Ceasefire and Its Real Implications

• The U.S.-brokered Gaza ceasefire, announced by President Donald Trump, seemed to favour Israel, given his stern warnings to Hamas.
• In reality, it was Israel that had to halt its offensive, withdraw troops, and abandon plans to destroy Hamas completely.
• Hamas, meanwhile, only agreed to exchange hostages for prisoners, refusing to disarm or relinquish controlover Gaza - leaving the future of peace uncertain.

Israel as a Binational State: An Emerging Dilemma

• Unsustainable Hegemony: Although Israel’s regional dominance appears strong now, its long-term supremacy is unsustainable.
  • Beneath its military superiority, Israel risks becoming a colossus with feet of clay, facing deep internal contradictions.
• Demographic Reality: Within Israel’s 1967 borders, the population is about nine million, of which 20% (around two million) are Palestinians.
  • The West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and Gaza Strip together add over six million Palestinians.
  • Thus, a “Greater Israel” would consist of nearly equal numbers of Jews and Palestinians, effectively making it a binational state.
• Political and Moral Choices:
  • Israel faces an existential dilemma:
    • Option 1: Accept a binational democracy granting equal rights to both Jews and Palestinians - which would end the Zionist vision of a Jewish homeland.
    • Option 2: Continue as an apartheid-like state, with one ethnic group ruling over another and drawing global condemnation and isolation, similar to South Africa’s apartheid era.
• Consequences: Either path would leave Israel internally divided or internationally ostracised, undermining its legitimacy and stability.
  • Such a fragile socio-political foundation makes the idea of a sustained regional hegemony highly improbable in the long run.

The Impact of Israel’s Actions: Eroding Regional and Global Support

• Strained Ties with Arab Regimes: Israel’s recent military offensives have alarmed several Arab states, especially the Gulf sheikhdoms and Saudi Arabia, which once viewed Israel as a strategic counterbalance to Iran.
  • This perception underpinned the Abraham Accords — signed with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, but Israel’s excessive aggression has now shattered this trust.
  • The devastation in Gaza, where over 67,000 Palestinians including women and children were killed and mass starvation imposed, has outraged Arab populations, threatening the legitimacy of authoritarian regimes if seen aligning with Israel.
• Breakdown of Trust after the Doha Incident: Israel’s attempt to assassinate Hamas negotiators in Qatar (September 2025), despite pledging not to, further alienated Gulf rulers.
  • This act convinced them that Israel is unreliable and reckless, setting back by years the U.S.–Israeli ambition of normalising relations with Saudi Arabia.
  • Consequently, Israeli legitimacy has hit a historic low even among Arab elites who once discreetly supported it.
• Erosion of Support in the United States: Israel’s actions in Gaza, verging on ethnic cleansing, have caused a major shift in American public opinion and a crucial pillar of Israel’s power.
  • President Trump’s pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire plan, contrary to Israeli goals, exposed Israel’s dependence on Washington.
  • Recent surveys highlight this changing tide:
    • A Pew poll found 60% of Americans now hold negative views of the Israeli government.
    • A Washington Post poll showed 61% of American Jews believe Israel committed war crimes, and 40% even describe it as genocide.
  • Genocide scholars, human rights organisations, and European governments increasingly align with this view, prompting many to recognise the State of Palestine despite U.S. and Israeli objections.
• Consequences for Israel’s Hegemony: The collapse of Arab confidence, coupled with declining American and global support, has weakened Israel’s diplomatic standing.
  • As public opinion shifts in the U.S. and including among Trump’s own MAGA base.  Israel’s reliance on American backing becomes increasingly precarious, undermining its long-term hegemonic ambitions in West Asia.

The View in Washington: A Shifting Strategic Equation

• Centrality of U.S. Support: American backing remains the cornerstone of Israel’s power and security, shaping its military and diplomatic leverage in West Asia.
  • Any shift in Washington’s stance on the Israel–Palestine conflict could reshape regional dynamics and weaken Israel’s dominant position.
• Evolving U.S. Priorities: The United States holds significant strategic and economic interests in West Asia, which have long been subordinated to its unwavering support for Israel.
  • However, under President Donald Trump’s transactional foreign policy, alliances are conditional — driven by U.S. self-interest rather than loyalty to partners.
• Implications for Israel: If Washington begins to recalibrate its regional approach, prioritising economic and security pragmatismover ideological alignment, Tel Aviv’s privileged position could erode.
  • Such a transformation would fundamentally alter the balance of power, compelling Israel to navigate a more uncertain and less indulgent U.S. policy environment.

Conclusion

Furthermore, with Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities severely weakened and the Tehran-led Axis of Resistance in disarray, Israel’s strategic importance to Washington has significantly diminished. Increasingly, Tel Aviv is being viewed as an impediment to the United States’ broader strategic and economic objectives in West Asia. In the absence of America’s unconditional backing, Israel’s regional dominance would quickly erode, and its ambitions of long-term hegemony could be irreversibly dismantled — a prospect that appears more imminent than distant.