IAS/UPSC Coaching Institute  

15 Dec 2025 : An anomaly

 Editorial 2: ​An anomaly

Context

The Centre should publicly disclose burnt-area estimates related to stubble burning.

 

Introduction

The government’s claim of a sharp reduction in stubble burning in Punjab and Haryana has been presented as a major success in tackling air pollution in Delhi-NCR. However, closer scrutiny of satellite data, measurement methods, and burnt-area estimates raises serious questions about the accuracy and transparency of these assertions.

 

Claim on Reduction in Stubble Burning

  • The Environment Ministry informed Parliament that Punjab and Haryana reduced fire incidences by 90% in 2025 compared to 2022.
  • This refers to farm stubble burning, a practice used to clear paddy residue for sowing wheat, which has been strongly linked to October–November air pollution in Delhi-NCR.

 

Government Measures Adopted

  • Governments have followed a carrot-and-stick approach:
    • Penalties imposed on farmers for burning stubble.
    • Subsidised machinery such as combined harvesters and tractors.
    • Incentives for collecting stubble and selling it for co-firing in thermal power plants.

 

Limitations in Measuring Impact

  • There is no direct scientific evidence proving that these measures reduced stubble burning’s contribution to Delhi’s air pollution.
  • Accurate assessment would require chemical analysis of pollutants using mass spectrography, which is currently not available.
  • Instead, the government relies on proxy indicators, mainly satellite-based fire counts.

 

Fire Counts vs Burnt Area

  • Satellite data since 2020 shows a decline in fire counts, which the government cites as success.
  • However, independent research using alternative satellite imagery shows a different picture.
  • The actual burnt area declined by only 30%, from 31,500 sq km in 2022 to 19,700 sq km in 2025 (till Nov 25).

 

Satellite Blind Spots and Fire Timing

  • Data from Meteosat (geostationary satellite) reveals that farm fires have shifted to evening hours.
  • Polar-orbiting satellites used by the Centre pass over India between 10 a.m. and 1.30 p.m., missing many fires.
  • Reports since 2022 suggested farmers adjusted burning times to evade satellite detection.

 

Judicial Concerns and Transparency Issues

  • In 2024, the Supreme Court directed authorities to focus on burnt-area estimates, not just fire counts.
  • Despite this, the Centre has not released year-wise burnt-area data.
  • Differences in satellite resolution further cloud the accuracy of current fire estimates.

 

Need for Honest Data Disclosure

  • Continued reliance on selective or incomplete data risks undermining public trust.
  • To credibly address air pollution, the Centre must publicly disclose comprehensive burnt-area estimates and adopt transparent, scientifically robust metrics.

 

Conclusion

Counting fewer fire incidences does not necessarily mean less stubble burning. Without publishing year-wise burnt-area data and adopting scientifically robust monitoring, official claims risk appearing misleading. For credible pollution control, the Centre must prioritise data transparency, follow Supreme Court directions, and base policy on comprehensive evidence, not selective indicators.