Editorial 2: New Delhi’s perilous recalibration with the Taliban
Context
India risks getting its fingers burnt by engaging with the Taliban.
Introduction
India is deepening its engagement with the Taliban, with reports suggesting that Prime Minister Narendra Modi may permit the regime in Afghanistan to appoint a new envoy for its embassy in New Delhi. This development follows the first high-level meeting between India and the Taliban in January, where India's Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri, met with the Taliban's acting 'Foreign Minister,' Amir Khan Muttaqi, in Dubai to discuss enhancing political and economic relations, along with providing humanitarian assistance.
India’s Evolving Relationship with the Taliban
- Longstanding Engagement: India’s diplomatic ties with the Taliban have been strengthening over time.
- In June 2022, nearly a year after the Taliban regained power, New Delhi reopened its embassy in Kabul.
- Potential Diplomatic Shift: Accepting a Taliban-appointed diplomat in India would mark a major policy shift.
- This move would effectively grant legitimacy to the Taliban regime, something most nations have avoided.
- Global Concerns Over Taliban’s Governance: The Taliban's oppressive policies, particularly against women, have led to global condemnation.
- Human rights violations include:
- 1.4 million school-age girls barred from education.
- Women prohibited from most jobs.
- Recent bans on women entering beauty parlors and national parks, further erasing their public presence.
- UN experts have labeled the situation as "gender apartheid."
- India’s Strategic Interests: Despite global opposition, New Delhi sees an opportunity to expand its influence in Afghanistan.
- India considers engagement with the Taliban crucial for its strategic and geopolitical interests in the region.
China’s quick moves
- China has taken the lead, becoming the first nation to accept a Taliban envoy and invest in Afghan infrastructure.
- Beijing may integrate the Taliban into its Belt and Road Initiative, expanding its regional influence.
- India has an opportunity to outmaneuver Pakistan, whose ties with the Taliban have weakened.
- The Taliban has moved away from Islamabad, strengthening relations with China, Russia, and Central Asian nations.
- Pakistan, once a dominant ally, now holds little sway in Kabul.
A wave of terror: Risks of Engaging with the Taliban
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Risk Factor
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Key Details
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Terrorism Hotbed
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Afghanistan under the Taliban has become a breeding ground for terrorism.
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Islamic State (IS) Threat
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IS conducts deadly attacks, targeting the Taliban and its allies.
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Major Attacks
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- Dec 2023: Taliban ‘Minister’ Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani assassinated.
- 2023: IS threatened to bomb the Chinese embassy in Kabul.
- 2022: Attack on Kabul hotel popular with Chinese nationals (3 dead, 18 injured).
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Russia Targeted
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- March 2024: IS attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall (140+ dead, 500+ injured).
- March 2024: Shootout in Moscow subway with IS suspect.
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Pakistan Conflict
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- Taliban accused of aiding Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
- Late 2023: Pakistan launched airstrikes on terror camps in Afghanistan.
- Feb 2024: TTP claimed 147 attacks on Pakistani soil (180 soldiers killed).
- Recent attack: Suicide bombing at Pakistani army compound (9 dead, 25 injured).
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India in the Crosshairs
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- Dec 2023: IS attacked Indian consulate in Jalalabad (1 dead, 2 injured).
- UN Report: IS seeks to recruit ‘lone actors’ for large-scale attacks in India.
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Growing Security Concerns
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India is now a prime target for IS, increasing the risk of attacks at home.
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Need for caution
- India’s Stand on Terrorism: New Delhi has consistently advocated for an Afghanistan free from terrorism.
- Precondition for Engagement: India should demand concrete action against terror groups before deepening ties with the Taliban.
- Regional Cooperation: The Taliban must collaborate with regional partners to eliminate Islamic State (IS)threats.
- Tackling Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP): The Taliban should renounce its support for TTP and take steps to curb its influence.
- Longstanding Instability: Afghanistan has faced political turmoil and terrorism for decades, making it a high-risk investment.
- Unresolved Security Concerns: The Taliban’s inability or unwillingness to address these challenges keeps Afghanistan just as volatile today.
Conclusion
India should learn from the experiences of its rivals, China and Pakistan, both of whom have faced setbacks after engaging with the Taliban and investing in Afghanistan. Given its own painful history with terrorism, New Delhi may conclude that the risks outweigh the potential benefits.