Editorial 1: Progress should not just be fast but future-proof

Context

India lacks a full plan to track climate risks, so its responses are often late and unplanned.

Introduction

India’s climate future isn’t fate — it’s shaped by rising heat, unpredictable rains, and worsening disasters. Over 80% of Indians live in areas at risk, says the World Bank. From floods in the northeast to crop loss in central India, these are now serious, ongoing threats. Yet, poor planning and weak risk assessment keep India exposed, with reactive rather than proactive responses.

Escalating Climate Physical Risks (CPRs)

• Climate change is intensifying, leading to more frequent and severe extreme weather.
• CPRs go beyond just natural disasters and include:
  • Acute shocks: such as floods, heatwaves, and cyclones
  • Chronic stresses: including shifting monsoons and prolonged droughts
• Early warning systems and weather forecasts help with short-term risk reduction.
• However, CPRs demand long-term planning and climate projections, not just daily forecasts.

Mitigation vs Adaptation: The Global Dilemma

• Events like wildfires, heatwaves, and cyclones show that adaptation is essential worldwide.
• According to the UN Environment Programme, every $1 spent on adaptation brings a $4 return through avoided economic damage.

Understanding CPRs: More Than Just Weather

• CPRs are determined by more than extreme events; they depend on:
  • Hazard: Nature of the event (e.g., floods, heatwaves)
  • Exposure: Who or what is in harm’s way (people, assets, infrastructure)
  • Vulnerability: Ability to resist, cope with, and recover from the hazard

• Together, these three elements determine the true scale of climate risk.

Financial Stability and Climate Risk Reporting

• Regulators worldwide are shifting from voluntary to mandatory climate risk disclosures.
• In India:
  • Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is integrating climate risk into regulation.
  • IFRS ISSB S2 sets a global standard for CPR disclosures.
• CPR assessments are now critical for business continuity, not just environmental goals.

India’s Fragmented CPR Assessment Landscape

• India's CPR assessment remains scattered and inconsistent across sectors:
  • Multiple agencies and platforms use different data and methods
  • No unified national framework like in the U.S., U.K., or New Zealand

• Climate models like Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs):
  • Are designed globally, but miss India’s local climate realities
• The absence of a centralised climate data repository hampers informed decision-making by businesses and policymakers.

Steps taken to fill the gaps

• Recognising existing gaps, India has taken steps to incorporate climate hazards into its National Adaptation Plan (NAP), aligned with Article 7 of the Paris Agreement, which requires all countries to develop NAPs by 2025 and show progress by 2030.
• To support this, India prepared an Adaptation Communication and submitted its first report in 2023. A more detailed NAP report is in progress, addressing nine thematic sectors with district-level detail.
• Although this is a positive beginning, India needs to advance by developing a Climate Physical Risk (CPR) assessment tool to aid both public and private sectors in decision-making.
• Such a tool will help the public sector create climate-resilient policies, plan infrastructure efficiently, and allocate resources effectively.
• For the private sector, it will facilitate risk assessment across value chains, guide operational and expansion strategies, and meet increasing investor expectations.

Conclusion

The creation of an India-specific framework is essential—one that integrates localised climate models, granular risk assessments, a centralised climate risk data hub, and transparent, science-driven methodologies supported by iterative feedback loops. As India advances towards Viksit Bharat, such robust climate risk assessments are crucial to ensure that development is not only accelerated but also resilient and future-ready.