Editorial 2: ​China, India and the conflict over Buddhism

Context

The Himalayas are the real frontline in the rivalry between India and China, shaping borderland loyalties.

Introduction

While news headlines focus on China’s naval expansion in the Indo-Pacific and India’s responses, there is a quieter but deeper contest happening in the Himalayas. This high-altitude rivalry is slowly reshaping Asia’s future. The real geopolitical frontier between India and China isn’t in the sea, but in the mountains. And the core issue isn’t about oil, trade, or weapons — it is about faith.

Buddhism: From Sacred Tradition to Strategic Terrain

• What appears to be a spiritual tradition rooted in non-violence and mysticism has, in today’s world, become a geopolitical battleground.
• Monasteries, once dedicated to meditation and scholarly learning, now stand at the frontlines of national and regional power contests.
• The reincarnation of lamas is no longer just a religious affair, but a question of political sovereignty and territorial influence.
• In sensitive regions like Ladakh, Tawang, and even Bhutan, Buddhist identity is now shaped by both the sacred and the strategic.
• The lines between spiritual allegiance and national loyalty are increasingly blurred, turning faith into a soft power tool in regional diplomacy.

China vs India: Competing Strategies Over Himalayan Buddhism

• Buddhism shapes identity, especially in Himalayan borderlands where national boundaries are unclear.
• China views Buddhism as a tool of statecraft — using religion to strengthen political control and territorial claims.
• Since the 1950s, China has:
  • Exiled independent lamas and undermined religious autonomy.
  • Co-opted monasteries and institutions across Tibet.
  • Claimed the sole authority to approve reincarnations of Tibetan spiritual leaders.
• In 2007, China declared all “Living Buddhas” must be state-approved, asserting that political authority defines spiritual legitimacy.
• China has expanded this approach by:
  • Creating a database of reincarnated lamas.
  • Monitoring monasteries across Tibetan regions.
  • Repurposing sacred sites into tools of soft power.
  • Hosting Buddhist diplomacy events to influence Himalayan monks’ loyalties.
• Meanwhile, India’s approach has been slower and more fragmented:
  • Hosting the Dalai Lama and Tibetan exile government since 1959 gave India moral prestige, but not strategic gains.
  • In the last decade, India began promoting Buddha’s birthplace and pilgrimage tourism.
  • However, India’s efforts lack the coherence and scale of China’s.
  • Scholars note: India uses Buddhist diplomacy, whereas China uses Buddhist statecraft.

The Coming Succession Crisis and Its Geopolitical Ripples

• The current 14th Dalai Lama, now 90, has signaled he will reincarnate outside Chinese control, likely in India.
• In response, China will appoint its own Dalai Lama using the “Golden Urn” method.
• This will result in two rival Dalai Lamas:
  • One backed by the Tibetan exile community and global Buddhists.
  • One installed in Lhasa, backed by Beijing and guarded closely.
• The schism will force Buddhist communities across the Himalayas — in:
  • Ladakh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Nepal, and Bhutan — to choose sides.
• These spiritual choices will have strategic consequences:
  • If the Dalai Lama is in India, it strengthens New Delhi’s influence.
  • If he is based in Lhasa, China’s cultural and political pull may deepen.
• Already, the tug-of-war is visible:
  • In Arunachal Pradesh, China claims Tawang, the birthplace of the 6th Dalai Lama, using cultural logic to justify territorial claims.
  • In Nepal, China invests in Buddhist infrastructure, especially near Lumbini.
  • In Bhutan, Beijing courts monastic networks, even while Bhutan’s government maintains tight religious control.

Working on internal disagreements

• Buddhist Disputes as Strategic Opportunities:
  • Internal divisions within Tibetan Buddhism are increasingly being used for geopolitical purposes.
  • Example: The Karma Kagyu school has two rival Karmapas, both claiming legitimate leadership.
    • China and India have aligned with different factions, turning a spiritual rift into a proxy conflict.
  • The Dorje Shugden sect, rejected by the Dalai Lama, has found support from Chinese authorities aiming to undermine the Tibetan exile leadership.
• More Than a Religious Dispute:
  • This is not just about doctrinal differences — it’s about control over legitimacy.
  • Whoever defines religious legitimacy also influences loyalties of border communities, especially in sensitive areas like Ladakh.
  • India’s challenge: Prevent spiritual allegiance from shifting toward foreign-backed Buddhist factions, particularly those across the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
• Soft Power as Hard Power in the Himalayas:
  • While these dynamics may seem like mere religious symbolism, they have strategic impact.
  • In the Himalayas, where access is limited and infrastructure sparse:
    • A monastery switching allegiance is a strategic loss.
    • A high lama pledging loyalty to China can tilt influence in entire valleys or districts.
• The High-Stakes Future After the Dalai Lama:
  • The issue of succession will become a global concern.
  • Countries with large Buddhist populations — Mongolia, Sri Lanka, Bhutan — may be pressured to take sides.
  • For India, hosting the next Dalai Lama will bring both:
    • A chance to strengthen spiritual and regional influence,
    • And the risk of intense diplomatic pressure from China.

Conclusion

In this ongoing story, the Himalayas are not just a remote region—they are the main stage. The monasteries in the clouds, the chanting monks, and the spinning prayer wheels are not just old traditions, but now act as tools of influence in a changing world. This is where India and China are already in competition—not with missiles, but over a spiritual leadership battle. That’s why, even as the world focuses on possible clashes in the Indo-Pacific seas, the real battlefield may be much higher—among the mountains, where spiritual beliefs and geopolitics come together. The next major contest between Asia’s two powers might not involve submarines or fighter jets, but rather prayer beads (threngwas) and the question of reincarnations.