Editorial 1: China ties — beware conciliation without deterrence

Context

Regarding ties with China, India must recognize that a stabilization policy also necessitates maintaining a strong deterrent.

Introduction

India seems to be softening its stance toward China. In a podcast released in mid-March, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke more positively about China than he has in years. He emphasized that "only through dialogue can we build a stable, cooperative relationship," which is important for global peace and prosperity. Chinese officials welcomed his remarks.

India-China Relations: Gradual Recovery After 2020 Border Crisis

• India-China relations have been gradually improving after a major rupture in 2020.
• In 2020, China carried out multiple incursions across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) into Ladakh, leading to a skirmish that killed 20 Indian soldiers.
• Military talks led to a slow disengagement of forces from several border sites.
• Despite diplomatic tensions, bilateral trade continued to grow, reaching record levels.
• In October 2024, India and China unexpectedly agreed to disengage troops from the last two incursion sites.
• This formally ended the crisis, setting both countries on a path toward normalization.

On India’s stance

• Uncertain Policy Direction: It is unclear if Prime Minister Modi’s comments indicate a real policy shift or just a change in tone.
• Keeping Options Open: New Delhi may not have made a final decision and could be maintaining flexibility.
• Possible Return to Past Approach: India might be reviving its earlier strategy of seeking a cooperative relationship with China, as seen in previous Modi-Xi summits.
• Ongoing Rivalry: The India-China competition is long-term and deeply rooted.
• Strengthening Quad Ties: Just days after Modi’s podcast, India’s Chief of Defence Staff, General Anil Chauhan, met with military leaders from Quad partners—Australia, Japan, and the U.S.
• Economic Priorities: India has always focused on economic growth, making it practical to avoid military conflicts with its biggest trading partner.
• China’s Economic Advantage: With an economy over four times larger than India’s, China remains a crucial factor in India’s strategic decisions.
• A Pragmatic View: As External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar put it, maintaining stable relations with China is just “common sense.”

The three body problem

• No Policy in Isolation: India does not make decisions in a vacuum; it closely watches global developments, especially in the U.S.
• Monitoring U.S. Actions: The Modi government is carefully observing the Trump administration’s policies and their impact.

Trump’s Mixed Signals on China

Trump’s Approach to Global Power Deals

• Grand Bargains: Trump prefers striking deals with major powers rather than maintaining long-standing commitments.
• Ukraine Example: His peace plan accommodates Russia’s interests while prioritizing U.S. commercial gains.
• Potential for China: There is no reason Trump couldn’t strike a similar deal with China, possibly trading strategic influence for economic benefits.

Impact on India’s Security Calculations

India’s Strategic Response

• Self-Reliance in Defense: India does not depend on U.S. military protection but values intelligence-sharing.
• Reducing Uncertainty: Given the unpredictability of U.S. support, India sees merit in stabilizing relations with China.
• Balancing Power Dynamics: Strengthening diplomatic engagement with China may be necessary to avoid being caught in global power shifts.

Sharpen the sword

• New Policy Risks: A softer stance toward China may tempt India to reduce military spending and partnerships.
• Reality Check: Instead of easing off, India must strengthen its military preparedness.

India’s Weak Military Investments

The Long-Term Need for Military Strength

• Future Options Depend on Present Investments: Military capabilities take years, even decades, to develop.
• Delays in Modernization: Postponing reforms and investments weakens India’s strategic position.

Strengthening Military Cooperation

Way Forward: The Need for Proactive Investment

• Stability Should Not Mean Weakness: A stabilisation policy must not become an excuse to neglect military readiness.
• Balancing Diplomacy with Strength: India must engage diplomatically while ensuring it remains militarily capable.
• Preparing for the Future: To have options tomorrow, India must invest in its military today.

Conclusion

The main goal of military power is to prevent attacks and, if needed, fight back. Indian leaders should be prepared for more Chinese aggression in the future, just as they have faced for years, even after Prime Minister Modi’s meetings with President Xi. If India wants peace, it must back its diplomatic efforts with real strength to stop aggression. Otherwise, peace could turn into weakness.