Article 3: From black to grey
Why in news: India’s SRS Statistical Report 2024 revealed a decline in fertility and birth rates below replacement levels, signalling demographic transition, ageing population concerns, and widening regional disparities in development outcomes.
Key Details
- Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declined to 1.9, below replacement level of 2.1.
- Birth rate fell from 21 (2014) to 18.3 (2024).
- India’s median age remains young at 29.2 years.
- Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) improved to 24, reflecting better child survival.
- Sharp regional and rural–urban disparities persist in healthcare and demographic indicators.
Declining Population Growth
- The Sample Registration System (SRS) Report 2024 confirms that India’s population growth is slowing significantly.
- India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1.
- The birth rate declined from 21 (2014) to 18.3 (2024).
- The death rate also slightly reduced from 6.7 to 6.4.
- India is gradually moving from a phase of population explosion to one of ageing population growth.
Opportunity of Demographic Dividend
- India still remains one of the youngest nations globally.
- The country’s median age is about 29.2 years, much lower than China and many European nations.
- Around 370–380 million youth in the age group of 15–29 years live in India in 2026.
- More than 65% of Indians are below 35 years of age.
- This youthful population can become a major driver of economic growth and innovation.
Reasons Behind Falling Fertility
- Rapid urbanisation has encouraged smaller family norms.
- Improved education levels, especially among women, have reduced fertility rates.
- Better access to contraception and family planning services has contributed significantly.
- Rising aspirations and higher living costs have increased the preference for smaller families.
- Declining fertility reflects broader social and economic transformation in India.
Emerging Challenges of an Ageing Society
- Higher life expectancy of about 72 years indicates improved healthcare access.
- India may soon face challenges related to a greying population.
- A shrinking workforce could affect long-term economic productivity.
- Increasing elderly population may raise pressure on healthcare and social security systems.
- India must prepare early through reforms in healthcare, pensions, and elderly welfare.
Regional and Rural–Urban Disparities
- Significant gaps persist between rural and urban areas in demographic indicators.
- Southern States continue to perform better than many northern States.
- Although the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) has improved to 24, northern high-burden States still report higher IMR levels.
- Unequal access to healthcare, education, and awareness remains a challenge.
- Targeted policy interventions are needed to ensure balanced demographic development across the country.
Conclusion
India’s demographic transition presents both opportunities and challenges. While the country still enjoys a strong demographic dividend due to its youthful population, declining fertility and rising ageing trends demand long-term planning. Strengthening healthcare, social security, employment generation, and reducing regional disparities will be crucial to ensuring inclusive and sustainable demographic and economic development in the coming decades.
Descriptive question:
Q. Discuss the implications of India’s declining fertility rate and demographic transition on its economy, workforce, and social development. (150 words, 10 marks)