28 Jun 2025 : A China-led trilateral nexus as India’s new challenge

 Editorial 1: A China-led trilateral nexus as India’s new challenge

Context

The Beijing-led trilaterals are strategically designed to undermine India's long-term regional and strategic interests.

Introduction

Last week, China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh convened their first trilateral meeting in Kunming, China, focusing on enhancing cooperation and exploring avenues for deeper engagement. This dialogue came shortly after a similar China-Pakistan-Afghanistan trilateral held in May, aimed at expanding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)and boosting regional cooperation. These China-led trilaterals emerge at a time when Pakistan’s regional relevance is waning, India is strengthening ties with Afghanistan, and New Delhi’s relationship with Bangladesh is facing strain. By promoting these trilateral engagements, Beijing appears to be repositioning Pakistan as a key regional playerwhile simultaneously attempting to divert India’s strategic focus toward managing immediate bilateral tensions.

A war that shaped alignments

Strategic Patterns: The China-Pakistan ‘Plus One’ Doctrine Against India

• The strategy of China and Pakistan using other South Asian countries to counter India is not a new development.
• As early as 1965, Pakistan considered leveraging East Pakistan, China, and Nepal to cut off India’s Siliguri corridor, a vital strategic link.
• This strategy appears to be resurfacing, driven by India’s rising confidence in regional and global affairs.
• Pakistan-sponsored terror attacks — Uri (2016), Pulwama (2019), and Pahalgam (2025) — have been met with strong Indian retaliation, including surgical strikes and diplomatic offensives.
• India has clearly signaled an end to tolerance of nuclear blackmail by Pakistan.
• New Delhi has used its diplomatic clout and economic strength to isolate Pakistan, including:
  • Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty
  • Halting bilateral trade
  • Blocking port access
  • Targeting military installations
• These responses have weakened Pakistan’s military confidence and exposed vulnerabilities in Rawalpindi’s security apparatus.
• India’s firm response to Chinese incursions in Doklam and Galwan have likely surprised Beijing and altered its calculus.
• To counter China, India has deepened strategic ties with like-minded countries (e.g., Quad nations) to contain Chinese aggression.

 China’s Shrinking Influence & Emerging Trilateral Tactics

• India’s pragmatic regional diplomacy has slowed down China's momentum in South Asia.
• In the Maldives, despite initial anti-India rhetoric by President Mohamed Muizzu, China remains cautious, and Muizzu has turned to India for economic stability.
• In Nepal, although a BRI framework was signed, funding disagreements have delayed most projects.
• In Sri Lanka, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has prioritized relations with India, even visiting Delhi before Beijing, respecting India's strategic redlines.
• In Bangladesh, despite diplomatic tensions, India has continued trilateral energy cooperation involving Nepal.
• These regional shifts have increased anxiety in Beijing, prompting new trilateral moves involving Afghanistan and Bangladesh.
• Prior to regime changes, both Afghanistan (2021) and Bangladesh (2024) supported India’s counter-terror efforts against Pakistan.
• With new regimes, Pakistan and China are trying to pull these nations into their strategic sphere.
• There is growing concern over India’s direct engagement with the Taliban, which could erode Pakistan’s leverage in Afghanistan.
• Pakistan has significantly deepened its security, economic, and political ties with the new government in Bangladesh.
• Historically, both Afghanistan and Bangladesh have ties with Pakistan, and may again become breeding grounds for cross-border terrorism.
• Backed by Chinese investment and political cover, Pakistan may regain regional relevance, create frictions between India and its neighbors, and keep Delhi preoccupied with terror and border security.
• This, in turn, would facilitate Chinese BRI projects and expand Beijing’s influence across South Asia.

China efforts and setbacks

• The recent regional developments reaffirm that China, not Pakistan, poses the primary strategic challenge to India.
• As both China and Pakistan confront a more assertive India, Beijing sees trilateral arrangements as a means to undermine India’s regional position.
• While India seeks regional support to combat terrorism, China’s interference threatens to disrupt these efforts.
• South Asian countries will increasingly need to navigate a delicate balance between India’s security concerns and China’s expanding influence.
• Beijing’s use of Islamabad to complicate regional dynamics adds further geopolitical strain.
• India, in response, must continue to assert its redlines and communicate clearly that any provocations by neighboring states will result in serious economic, military, and political consequences.

Conclusion

The emerging China-led trilaterals, with Pakistan as a conduit, reflect Beijing’s attempt to reshape South Asia’s strategic balance by undermining India’s growing influence. While India asserts its military strength and diplomatic clout, it must remain vigilant and proactive. A firm yet pragmatic strategy is essential to deter provocations, safeguard national interests, and sustain its regional leadership in an evolving geopolitical landscape.