Editorial 2: Advantage China in Africa’s nuclear energy market race

Context

As many African nations restructure their energy sector, China could become their preferred partner.

Introduction

The Russia-Ukraine war has highlighted the importance of energy security, as many European countries struggled to find new energy sources and partnerships. Despite being far from the conflict, Africa also felt its impact. Now, African leaders are focusing on restructuring their energy sector, with nuclear power emerging as a key solution for their energy transformation.

• Africa currently has only one nuclear power plant – the Koeberg plant in South Africa, built by a French consortium.
• Several other African nations – including Ghana, Nigeria, Sudan, Rwanda, Kenya, and Zambia – are planning to adopt nuclear energy to improve electricity access.
• Estimates suggest that by 2035, Africa could generate 15,000 MW of nuclear power.
• The nuclear energy market in Africa is set for major growth, with an investment potential of $105 billion.

Shifting Power in Africa’s Nuclear Market

• France’s Declining Influence: France has long dominated Africa’s nuclear market, especially in Francophone Africa.
  • However, its influence is weakening, and it is struggling to stay relevant.
• U.S. Involvement: Since 2023, the United States has been hosting the US-Africa Nuclear Energy Summit (USANES).
  • The future of U.S. nuclear expansion in Africa will depend on President Donald Trump’s policies.
• Russia’s Growing Presence: Russia has signed nuclear agreements with Egypt, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Burundi.
  • Since July 2022, Russia’s Rosatom has been constructing a nuclear reactor in El Dabaa, Egypt, though progress has been slow.
• South Korea’s Entry: South Korea, led by Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power (KHNP), has shown interest in expanding into Africa’s nuclear market.
  • China Leading the Race: Among all global players, China is emerging as the dominant force in Africa’s nuclear market.

Key Players in Africa’s Nuclear Market

China’s Entry into Africa’s Nuclear Sector

• China's nuclear ambitions in Africa are relatively new but expanding rapidly.
• In 2012, China, in partnership with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), launched a scholarship program for students from Africa and South Asia to train them in Chinese nuclear technology and procedures.
• This initiative increased the chances of African nations choosing Chinese equipment and expertise.
• Today, China operates over 50 nuclear reactors, making it an attractive partner for African countries.

China’s Key Nuclear Companies in Africa

• Two major state-owned companies lead China's nuclear expansion in Africa:
  1. China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN)
  2. China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC)

Recent Nuclear Agreements with African Nations

Competition with Russia in West Africa

• Pro-Russian governments in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali signed an MoU with Russia during the Russia-Africa Summit 2023.
• These countries approached Russia’s Rosatom for nuclear projects, but:
  • Nuclear power plants require massive investments.
  • Russia’s economic struggles due to sanctions and the Ukraine war may limit its ability to fund large-scale projects.
  • This could push these nations toward China, which has more financial resources for nuclear expansion.

Africa’s nuclear ambition, impact on India

• Shift Towards Clean Energy
  • Africa is increasingly viewing nuclear energy as a solution to its energy challenges.
  • The global push for cleaner and more efficient energy sources is driving this interest.
• Chinese Financing and Debt Considerations
  • Despite concerns about debt traps, African nations are likely to seek Chinese financial support for nuclear projects.
  • China is already a global leader in nuclear power plant construction.
• Challenges in Power Transmission
  • Many African countries lack the necessary transmission infrastructure to distribute nuclear-generated power.
  • China can assist in building these networks through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
• China’s Expanding Influence
  • If China successfully develops Africa’s transmission infrastructure, it will strengthen its leadership in the region’s clean energy market.
  • This involvement will further solidify China’s dominance across Africa.

Conclusion

As of January 30, 2025, India's nuclear power capacity is 8,180 MW. To reach its target of 100 GW by 2047, India needs a steady supply of uranium, making Africa an important source. In 2009, India signed a civil nuclear agreement with Namibia and has plans to develop uranium mining projects in Niger and Namibia. However, with China expanding its influence in Africa, it may become more challenging for India to secure a strong presence in the region’s nuclear market, which could affect its long-term energy security.