Article 2: Season’s end
Why in news: The 2026 southwest monsoon ended with 759 mm rainfall, just 87% of normal, exposing gaps in IMD’s regional rainfall forecasts amid El Niño and climate change.
Key Details
- Overall deficit: India received 87% of normal rainfall, compared with the IMD’s forecast of 90–95%, making the monsoon more deficient than expected.
- Regional variation: The Northeast recorded its driest monsoon since 1901, while the South Peninsula faced a 23% deficit.
- Forecast gaps: June rainfall was only 65% of normal against a forecast of 92%, highlighting difficulties in predicting the magnitude of deficits.
- Climate change: Changing Western Disturbances and El Niño-driven rainfall volatility are making seasonal and regional rainfall patterns more difficult to predict.
- Agricultural impact: Kharif sowing initially lagged but recovered; however, drought declarations in Karnataka and Maharashtra highlight significant regional agricultural stress.
IMD’s Monsoon Forecast
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued pre-monsoon forecasts in April and May 2026.
- Both forecasts indicated the possibility of a dry monsoon, mainly due to the expected influence of El Niño.
- The IMD forecast below-normal rainfall, estimated at around 90–95% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
- However, actual rainfall was lower, with India receiving 759 mm against the normal 869 mm, or about 87% of normal rainfall.
- This made the 2026 monsoon significantly drier than the initial broad forecast suggested.
Regional Forecasting Challenges
- The IMD’s difficulty was more visible at the regional and monthly levels.
- June received only 65% of normal rainfall, compared with the forecast of around 92%.
- The Northeast recorded its driest monsoon since 1901, with rainfall about 26% below normal.
- The South Peninsula experienced a 23% rainfall deficit.
- Central and north-western India were comparatively closer to the IMD’s forecasts.
Impact of El Niño and Climate Change
- El Niño involves warming of the Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean and can suppress the Indian monsoon.
- Predicting the magnitude and regional distribution of rainfall deficiency during El Niño years remains difficult.
- Climate change is adding further uncertainty to monsoon patterns.
- Western disturbances are increasingly contributing rainfall during the monsoon months.
- Southern India appears particularly vulnerable to El Niño-related rainfall variability.
Impact on Agriculture and Water Resources
- The national rainfall deficit was around 12%, below the Centre’s 20% threshold for agricultural drought.
- However, several States faced severe localised impacts.
- Karnataka declared drought in more than 100 taluks, while Maharashtra declared drought in 265 of 358 taluks.
- Kharif sowing initially lagged behind the previous year by 16%, although the gap narrowed to below 2% by early September.
- Continued below-normal rainfall could affect soil moisture, reservoir levels and agricultural production.
Way Forward
- The IMD should strengthen sub-regional and localised forecasting systems.
- Forecasts should communicate not only the expected category but also the possible magnitude and regional variation of rainfall.
- Greater forecasting accuracy can help governments prepare for drought, irrigation and agricultural risks.
- Agricultural policy can encourage crop diversification in response to changing rainfall patterns.
- Given the economic and social consequences, the IMD should provide clear and timely warnings even when the forecast indicates adverse conditions.
Conclusion
The IMD’s forecasting capabilities remain crucial for agriculture, water management and disaster preparedness, but increasing climate variability demands greater regional precision. Strengthening sub-regional models, real-time observation networks and climate modelling can improve forecast reliability. At the same time, forecasts must communicate risks honestly, enabling governments and farmers to undertake timely crop planning, water conservation and drought preparedness.