Article 3: Monsoon has revived, but keep an eye on weather
Why in news: The southwest monsoon has revived despite strengthening El Niño, with July rainfall surplus and improved low-pressure activity narrowing rainfall deficiency and significantly reducing the kharif sowing gap.
Key Details
- Rainfall recovery: Cumulative monsoon rainfall deficiency has narrowed to 11.5%, from 38% in June, indicating significant improvement in monsoon performance.
- LPS activity: June saw no low-pressure systems, but July recorded four LPSs and 24 LPS-active days, supporting stronger rainfall.
- El Niño paradox: Despite El Niño strengthening to a moderate-to-strong phase, July recorded an all-India rainfall surplus of 2.4%.
- Kharif sowing: The sowing deficit narrowed sharply from 20.8% in early July to 2.9% by month-end, aided by late-season rainfall.
- Crop protection: Rainfall helped pulses, soybean, sesamum and cotton and relieved moisture stress in already-sown crops, preventing more severe agricultural losses.
Monsoon Recovery
- Cumulative rainfall deficiency during the southwest monsoon season has narrowed to 11.5%, compared with 38% in June and 22.8% by July 15.
- Despite concerns over El Niño, the monsoon has shown a significant revival rather than continued deterioration.
- The improvement has been driven mainly by increased low-pressure system (LPS) activity during July.
Low-Pressure Systems
- June witnessed no rain-bearing LPS, against the normal average of three systems lasting about 11 days.
- In July, four LPSs developed, compared with the normal average of three.
- July also recorded 24 LPS-active days, well above the normal 14 days, supporting stronger rainfall.
Rainfall Performance
- Despite El Niño strengthening from moderate to strong, July recorded an all-India rainfall surplus of 2.4%.
- This was contrary to the India Meteorological Department's forecast of below-normal rainfall for July.
- The stronger rainfall activity helped the monsoon recover after the prolonged dry spell in June.
Impact on Kharif Sowing
- The cumulative gap in kharif sowing narrowed sharply from 20.8% in the first week of July to just 2.9% by the end of July.
- Post-mid-July rainfall supported late sowing of pulses, soyabean, sesamum and cotton, which had been significantly behind schedule.
- The rains also provided crucial moisture to already-sown crops that were facing stress due to the prolonged monsoon break.
Overall Agricultural Outlook
- Recent rainfall prevented widespread stunted vegetative growth and reduced the risk of severe crop damage.
- Kharif agriculture has therefore not turned into the major crisis feared after the dry June and concerns over El Niño.
- The situation currently appears manageable, with fertiliser shortages also remaining relatively limited.
Conclusion
The monsoon revival highlights the importance of rainfall distribution and low-pressure activity, rather than El Niño alone, in determining seasonal outcomes. Improved July rainfall has reduced the cumulative deficit, supported kharif sowing and relieved crop moisture stress. However, continued monitoring of rainfall patterns, crop conditions and input availability remains essential to protect agricultural output.
Descriptive question:
How has the revival of the southwest monsoon improved India’s agricultural outlook despite the strengthening El Niño? (10 marks, 150 worrds)
Source: The Indian Express