Article 3: On climate, a long road back to Paris
Why in news: The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026 warns that current national climate commitments fall short of the reductions needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C under the Paris Agreement.
Key Details
- 1.5°C target at risk: Global temperatures are likely to exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in the coming decades. Under an optimistic pathway, warming could peak at 1.7–1.8°C around 2050 before returning to 1.5°C later this century.
- Large emissions gap: Global greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels. Existing national climate plans are far less ambitious.
- Clean energy transition: Solar and wind capacity has expanded significantly since the Paris Agreement. However, renewable energy installations must grow further, alongside better energy storage, grid infrastructure and affordable technologies.
- Limits of emerging technologies: Carbon capture and storage may help reduce emissions, but its cost and effectiveness at scale remain uncertain. Countries must accelerate proven solutions, including renewable energy and energy efficiency, rather than rely mainly on future technologies.
- Climate justice and finance: Vulnerable countries face growing losses from floods, droughts and other extreme events. The Loss and Damage Fund needs stronger financial support and faster assistance. International climate negotiations must also improve cooperation and accountability.
Global Warming and the Paris Agreement
- The Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels to reduce climate risks.
- The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026 highlights that achieving this target in the near term is unlikely.
- Under a low-overshoot scenario, global warming could peak at 1.7–1.8°C around 2050 before returning to 1.5°C later in the century.
- This pathway requires global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to fall by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, relative to 2025 levels.
- These targets highlight the need for rapid and sustained emissions reductions.
Gap Between Climate Targets and National Commitments
- Countries have submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.
- Full implementation of current climate plans would reduce emissions by only 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035, relative to 2025 levels.
- These reductions fall significantly short of the pathways identified by UNEP.
- The gap reflects the difference between existing climate commitments and the action required to limit global warming.
- Countries need to strengthen their climate targets and improve implementation to achieve meaningful emissions reductions.
Renewable Energy and Technological Challenges
- Solar and wind energy offer opportunities to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
- Renewable energy installations have increased around 2.5 times since the Paris Agreement.
- UNEP’s pathway requires renewable energy installations to reach around three times their 2025 level within the next decade.
- Technological progress and falling costs can accelerate the clean energy transition.
- However, geopolitical tensions, supply-chain disruptions and inadequate energy storage could slow renewable energy expansion.
- Emerging technologies such as carbon capture and storage may help, but their costs and large-scale effectiveness remain important considerations.
Climate Damage and Climate Finance
- Climate-related disasters will continue to affect vulnerable countries even if global emissions decline.
- Developing countries often face greater difficulties in recovering from floods, droughts and other climate-related disasters.
- The Loss and Damage Fund was established to support vulnerable countries facing climate impacts.
- The reported failure to provide timely assistance to Nepal after the August floods highlights concerns about the fund’s accessibility and effectiveness.
- Greater financial support, faster disbursement and transparent funding arrangements are needed to strengthen climate justice.
Way Forward
- Countries should strengthen their NDCs and align national policies with global emissions-reduction pathways.
- Accelerate investment in solar, wind and energy storage technologies.
- Reduce dependence on fossil fuels through clean energy transitions and improved energy efficiency.
- Promote research into carbon capture and storage while assessing its costs and effectiveness.
- Strengthen the Loss and Damage Fund to ensure timely support for vulnerable communities.
- Use the upcoming Conference of the Parties (CoP) to build stronger international cooperation, improve climate finance and renew commitments to the Paris Agreement.
Conclusion
The widening emissions gap demands urgent and coordinated climate action. Countries must strengthen their targets, expand renewable energy and improve energy storage while ensuring a fair transition for developing economies. At the same time, vulnerable communities need reliable funding to recover from climate-related disasters. Stronger international cooperation, predictable climate finance and accountability are essential to limit warming and protect those least responsible for climate change.
Descriptive question:
The widening gap between global climate commitments and the emission reductions required to limit warming highlights the weaknesses of international climate action. Discuss the challenges in achieving the Paris Agreement goals and suggest measures to strengthen climate cooperation and climate justice. (150 words, 10 marks)
Source: The Indian Express