Article 2: Wicked surprise
Why in news: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast normal northeast monsoon rainfall, raising hopes for southern India after a deficient southwest monsoon, while concerns over floods and extreme rainfall remain.
Key Details
- Northeast monsoon significance: The northeast monsoon occurs from October to December and contributes around one-fourth of India’s annual rainfall. It mainly benefits Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Karnataka and Kerala.
- Deficient southwest monsoon: India received 12.6% less rainfall than normal during June–September, according to the passage. The shortfall affected kharif sowing, agricultural output and food prices, increasing the importance of rainfall during the remaining monsoon season.
- El Niño’s influence: El Niño involves the warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It can weaken the southwest monsoon, but its impact on northeast monsoon rainfall varies. Some El Niño years bring heavy rain to Tamil Nadu, while others cause rainfall shortages.
- Forecasting challenges: Northeast monsoon rainfall is difficult to predict accurately because atmospheric circulation and cyclonic systems can change rainfall patterns. The 2015 Chennai floods, which caused major loss of life and displacement, demonstrate the risks of extreme rainfall.
- Disaster preparedness: Governments should improve weather forecasting, drainage systems, flood shelters and emergency response. Protecting critical infrastructure and issuing timely warnings can reduce damage to lives, homes and livelihoods.
Background and Significance of the Northeast Monsoon
- The northeast monsoon occurs mainly from October to December and contributes around one-quarter of India’s annual rainfall.
- It primarily benefits Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka and Kerala.
- India experienced a 12.6% rainfall deficit during the southwest monsoon, with rainfall of 759.4 mm against the normal 868.6 mm.
- This was the driest southwest monsoon in 11 years, affecting kharif sowing and food prices.
- The northeast monsoon is therefore important for agricultural recovery and water availability in southern India.
IMD Forecast and Uncertainty
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast normal northeast monsoon rainfall for the season.
- The forecast defines normal rainfall using a 50-year average, with a margin of error of around 12%.
- Southern parts of peninsular India are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while much of the country may receive below-normal rainfall.
- Northeast monsoon forecasts have a wider uncertainty range than southwest monsoon forecasts.
- Sudden changes in rainfall patterns make accurate forecasting and preparedness essential.
Role of El Niño in Monsoon Variability
- El Niño is the periodic warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- It is often associated with weaker southwest monsoon rainfall in India.
- However, its relationship with the northeast monsoon is complex and inconsistent.
- Some El Niño years, including 1997 and 2009, experienced above-normal northeast monsoon rainfall in Tamil Nadu, while others, such as 1982 and 2002, recorded poor rainfall.
- Changes in atmospheric circulation can influence the movement of rain-bearing systems and cyclones, making rainfall difficult to predict.
Risks of Excess Rainfall and Extreme Weather
- Excessive northeast monsoon rainfall can cause urban flooding, river flooding and infrastructure damage.
- The 2015 Chennai floods demonstrated the devastating effects of extreme rainfall, causing major loss of life and displacement.
- Inadequate stormwater drainage and unplanned urban development can worsen flood impacts.
- Heavy rainfall can damage roads, homes, public utilities and agricultural land.
- Both rainfall deficits and excessive rainfall pose serious challenges to water management and disaster preparedness.
Way Forward
- Clean and maintain stormwater drains before the monsoon season.
- Strengthen flood shelters, emergency services and evacuation arrangements.
- Improve weather forecasting and early-warning systems to provide timely and localised alerts.
- Prepare plans for infrastructure damage, power disruptions and waterlogging.
- Coordinate disaster-management efforts among the Centre, southern States and local authorities.
- Improve urban planning, protect natural drainage channels and strengthen climate-resilient infrastructure.
- Adopt a precautionary approach that prepares communities for both drought-like conditions and extreme rainfall.
Conclusion
The northeast monsoon offers relief to regions affected by deficient rainfall, but uncertain weather patterns can also cause destructive floods. Governments must strengthen early-warning systems, urban drainage, flood shelters and disaster-response capacity. Better coordination between the Centre, State governments and local bodies is essential. Combining scientific forecasting with community preparedness can protect lives, support agriculture and improve resilience to extreme weather events.