EDITORIAL 2: Old Delhi, new Washington
Context
Making sense of US President Donald Trump’s latest move — sending “tariff letters” to countries including long-standing Asian allies like Japan and South Korea — requires understanding the profound internal changes in America and their impact on the global order.
Tariff letters to India
- Trump has repeatedly said he would unilaterally set tariffs for most nations while striking deals selectively.
- India is in the second category and might see an interim agreement announced soon.
- Yet these developments should not distract India’s elite from grappling with the deeper forces shaping Trump’s worldview — a set of radical ideas that are shaking the international system to its foundations.
America’s unilateralism
- This new unilateralism is grounded in America’s “autonomy”. Unlike ageing allies in Europe and Asia or rivals like Russia and China, the US enjoys distinct advantage i.e.
- A relatively young and growing population supporting strong consumer demand and economic resilience; technological leadership in artificial intelligence, robotics, and automation enabling the reshoring of manufacturing and reducing dependence on global supply chains; and self-sufficiency in energy.
- Moreover, while the US economy is less reliant on exports, the rest of the world depends heavily on selling goods and services to American consumers.
- America’s unilateralism has also been reinforced by the political coalition behind Trump’s rise.
- The MAGA movement argues that globalisation has hollowed out American manufacturing and betrayed working people.
- The US is likely to remain the world’s preeminent power for the foreseeable future. China’s rapid rise once led to predictions that it would overtake the US in aggregate GDP this decade. That now seems less likely.
How should Delhi navigate this complex moment in America’s evolution?
- For one, Delhi already recognises that an unconstrained Trump is driving momentous global shifts that require major intellectual and policy adaptation in India.
- To its credit, Delhi has gone further than ever to negotiate a trade agreement with Washington and has learned to manage Trump’s anti-immigration agenda.
- Second, despite Trump’s often provocative pronouncements — on everything from trade to Indo-Pak peace — Delhi has maintained composure.
- Indian policymakers are acutely aware of the gap between signals from the White House and the rest of the US government. Staying engaged with the broader American establishment is essential to steady the relationship amid turbulence.
- Third, India has intensified its engagement with other major powers, both bilaterally and through forums like BRICS.
- The rhetoric at BRICS might suggest a return to the “glorious days” of the Non-Aligned Movement and the pursuit of a collective confrontation with the US.
- Sceptics, however, see Delhi as being as cynical as Beijing and Moscow in betting that bilateral deals with Washington matter more than grandstanding in multilateral gatherings.
Way forward
- One shortcoming of India’s approach is the limited appreciation of how US politics is reshaping its foreign, economic, and security policy.
- India needs American interlocutors who can do more than lament Delhi’s “illiberal turn” and can explain America’s own march away from liberalism.
- India needs friends who can go beyond objecting to India’s “lack of commitment” to the US partnership and illuminate why Trump reserves his harshest criticism for America’s long-standing allies.
- India needs American experts who can move beyond criticising Delhi’s “Moscow connection” and help unpack Trump’s reasons for sparing Russia from the tariff wars.