Article 2: Monsoon Resilience & Climate Variability
Why in News: India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast 92% of normal monsoon rainfall for 2026, the lowest in nearly two decades, raising concerns over agriculture and water security.
Key Details
- IMD predicts below-normal rainfall (92% of Long Period Average) for 2026 monsoon.
- Monsoon contributes ~70% of India’s annual rainfall, critical for agriculture and economy.
- Reservoir levels currently above normal (over 100% of 10-year average) due to good rains in 2024–25.
- India’s resilience has improved through better forecasting, water management, and conservation efforts.
Indian Monsoon: Backbone of Economy
- Primary Rainfall Source: The southwest monsoon (June–September) provides about 70–75% of India’s annual rainfall, making it crucial for water availability and ecological balance.
- Agricultural Dependence: Nearly 48% of India’s net sown area is rain-fed, meaning monsoon directly impacts crop output, especially for kharif crops like rice, pulses, and oilseeds.
- Economic Linkages: A good monsoon boosts rural income, consumption demand, and GDP growth, while poor rainfall can lead to inflation and rural distress.
- Water Resource Replenishment: Monsoon rainfall recharges groundwater, rivers, and reservoirs, supporting drinking water, irrigation, and hydropower generation.
IMD Forecasting & Scientific Advancements
- Improved Accuracy: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has significantly improved forecast accuracy using dynamical models and supercomputing, reducing uncertainty.
- Long Period Average (LPA): Monsoon forecasts are expressed as a percentage of LPA (~87 cm), with 92% indicating “below normal” but not drought conditions.
- Granular Forecasting: IMD now provides region-wise and monthly forecasts, enabling better planning for agriculture, disaster management, and water use.
- Early Warning Systems: Timely forecasts help policymakers take preventive measures, reducing risks associated with climate variability.
Climate Change & Monsoon Variability
- Role of El Niño: The El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean weakens monsoon circulation, often leading to deficient rainfall in India.
- Erratic Rainfall Patterns: Climate change has increased extreme rainfall events and dry spells, making monsoon distribution uneven rather than uniformly deficient.
- Rising Disasters: India has witnessed at least one major flood or extreme rainfall disaster annually in the last decade, indicating rising climate risks.
- Uncertainty in Prediction: Despite improvements, predicting localized extreme events remains a challenge due to complex climate interactions.
India’s Growing Resilience
- Improved Reservoir Storage: Current storage in 166 major reservoirs is above normal, providing a buffer against rainfall deficiency.
- Water Conservation Initiatives: Schemes like MGNREGA have created assets such as ponds, check dams, and wells, improving groundwater recharge and water security.
- Groundwater Management: Assessments by the Central Ground Water Board show improved groundwater levels in several regions due to conservation efforts.
- Diversification of Economy: Reduced dependence on agriculture in GDP (now ~15–16%) has enhanced resilience against monsoon shocks.
Spatial & Temporal Variability of Monsoon
- Uneven Distribution: A national forecast of 92% does not mean uniform deficiency; some regions may receive normal or above-normal rainfall.
- Seasonal Variation: Forecast suggests normal rainfall in June–July but drier conditions in August–September, affecting crop cycles.
- Regional Differences: Northeast, northwest, and southern peninsula may receive better rainfall, while other areas may face deficits.
- Policy Implication: Regional forecasting helps in crop planning, irrigation scheduling, and disaster preparedness.
Challenges Ahead
- Rain-fed Agriculture Risk: Small and marginal farmers remain vulnerable due to dependence on rainfall and lack of irrigation infrastructure.
- Groundwater Over-extraction: Despite improvements, India remains the largest groundwater extractor globally, posing long-term sustainability concerns.
- Flood vs Drought Duality: India faces both floods and droughts simultaneously, reflecting poor water management and climate variability.
- Need for Climate Adaptation: Strengthening climate-resilient agriculture and infrastructure is essential for long-term sustainability.
- Data & Coordination Gaps: Need for better coordination between IMD, agriculture departments, and local governance.
Way Forward
- Strengthen climate-resilient agriculture through drought-resistant crops and diversification.
- Enhance water management systems, including rainwater harvesting and micro-irrigation.
- Improve last-mile dissemination of weather forecasts to farmers via digital platforms.
- Promote integrated river basin management and groundwater regulation.
- Invest in climate adaptation infrastructure and disaster preparedness mechanisms.
Conclusion
India’s preparedness shows that a below-normal monsoon is not necessarily a crisis, but a test of resilience. Strengthening climate-smart agriculture, efficient water management, improved forecasting, and institutional coordination is essential. The focus must shift from monsoon dependence to climate adaptation, ensuring sustainable development amid increasing variability.
EXPECTED QUESTIONS FOR UPSC CSE
Prelims MCQ
Q. Consider the following statements regarding Indian monsoon:
- It contributes about 70% of annual rainfall in India
- El Niño leads to stronger monsoon in India
- IMD uses Long Period Average (LPA) for forecasting
Which of the statements given above are correct?
(a) 1 and 3
(b) 1 and 2
(c) 2 and 3
(d) 1, 2 and 3
Answer: (a)
Descriptive Question
Q. Examine the impact of below-normal monsoon on Indian agriculture and economy. Suggest measures to enhance resilience. (150 Words, 10 Marks)