Editorial 2 : The Pahalgam Moment
Context: Terror attack in Pahalgam
Introduction: Pakistan-sponsored and assisted terrorist attacks in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) have a repetitive course. Recurring large-scale attacks in Jammu & Kashmir and India trigger national outrage (e.g. Parliament attack 2001, Mumbai 26/11 2008, Uri 2016, Pulwama 2019, Pahalgam).
Evolution of India’s Response Strategies
- Pre-2014 Measures
- Military Mobilization: Operation Parakram (2001–2002) post-Parliament attack.
- Diplomatic Pressure: Downgraded ties with Pakistan and sought international censure (e.g. UNSC, FATF).
- Dialogue Efforts: Vajpayee-Musharraf agreement (2004) led to temporary peace.
- Post-2014 Approach: Hybrid Strategy
- Military: Aggressive counter-terror ops, cross-LoC strikes (e.g. surgical strikes post-Uri, Balakot airstrike post-Pulwama).
- Diplomatic: Global isolation of Pakistan via UNSC, FATF, and bilateral partnerships.
- Economic: Review of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) and threats to suspend water-sharing agreements.
- Unpredictability: Shift from anticipated responses to asymmetric retaliation.
Global Context and Shifting Dynamics
- International Perception
- Pre-2000: Reluctance to acknowledge Pakistan’s role in cross-border terrorism.
- Post-9/11: U.S. prioritized Afghan war, shielding Pakistan from harsher measures.
- Post-2021: U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan reduced Pakistan’s strategic value. Gulf nations have become less tolerant of terror links.
- India’s Rising Stature
- Stronger global support post-Pahalgam (e.g. U.S. F-16 scrutiny, FATF grey-listing).
- China remains Pakistan’s primary ally but faces global scrutiny.
Current Strategic Posture Post-Pahalgam
- Immediate Measures
- Diplomatic
- Downgrade bilateral ties; global outreach to cut military aid to Pakistan (e.g. F-16 upgrades).
- Push for UNSC sanctions, extraditions, and terror infrastructure dismantling.
- Economic
- Suspend Indus Water Treaty and review multilateral funding to Pakistan.
- Freeze projects in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK).
- Military & Security
- Counter-Terror Ops: Targeted operations in J&K with minimal civilian harm.
- Retaliation Strategy
- Surprise elements, intelligence collaboration, non-conventional measures.
- Focus on perpetrators and networks, not just tactical gains.
Potential Escalation Risks
- Pakistan’s Likely Moves
- Limited Conventional War: Aim to trigger international mediation and re-hyphenate India-Pakistan.
- Nuclear Threats: Use of tactical nukes unlikely due to global monitoring and India’s deterrence.
- Internal Politics: Pakistani military may exploit crisis to bolster its image as security guarantor.
- India’s Red Lines
- No tolerance for status quo changes in J&K.
- Retaliatory measures to avoid repetition and ensure surprise.
Long-Term Considerations
- Regional Stability
- South Asia’s future linked to resolving Kashmir without communal polarization.
- Need for global pressure to weaken Pakistani military’s grip and empower democratic forces.
- Internal Reforms in J&K
- Enhanced security presence and tech upgrades.
- Address bureaucratic inertia in defence modernization.
Way Forward
- Balanced Approach Required
- Combine military readiness, diplomatic vigour, and socio-economic progress in J&K.
- Avoid letting Pakistan’s military agenda dictate regional stability.
- Global Collaboration
- Sustain international pressure on Pakistan while pursuing multilateral partnerships.
- Focus on long-term solutions for South Asia’s shared prosperity.
Conclusion: India’s strategy must evolve beyond reactive measures to a sustained, multi-domain effort that addresses both immediate security threats and underlying geopolitical challenges.