EDITORIAL 1: Six years on, standing still
Context
It is now six years since the abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution and the reorganisation of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories (UTs).
Politics: Back to representation, but with curtailed powers
- The return of democratic representation was seen as a major milestone in the Centre’s post-August 5 roadmap in J&K. But the political dynamics remain fraught with tensions and compromises.
- The National Conference (NC) leads a government with reduced powers. Just before the election, control over police and services was given to the Lieutenant Governor, limiting the authority of the elected dispensation.
Security: A mixed record marred by Pahalgam attack
- The Centre’s strongest argument for the 2019 decisions was that it would curb terrorism. Six years on, the data do show a significant decline in violence.
- Incidents of stone throwing, hartals, abductions, and the snatching of weapons are down to zero.
- The Jammu region, which saw cross-border incursions and frequent attacks on security forces over the past three years, now reports far fewer encounters.
Economy: Investments surge, but core challenges remain
- INVESTMENTS: The Centre launched a new industrial scheme in 2021 promising incentives to attract investments. The government says investment realisation in 2024-25 is 10 times more than the pre-2020 period.
- REVENUES: J&K has seen a sharp uptick in tax revenues: GST collection increased by 12%, excise by 39%, and overall non-tax revenues rose 25% between 2022 and 2024. The state’s GDP doubled from Rs 1.17 lakh crore in 2015-16 to Rs 2.45 lakh crore in 2023-24, and hit Rs 2.63 lakh crore in 2024-25.
- POWER: By December 2026, J&K administration sources said, power generation is expected to double.
- FINANCIAL HEALTH: J&K Bank went from a loss of Rs 1,139 crore in 2019-20 to a profit of Rs 1,700 crore in 2023-24. NPA levels have halved. However, the fiscal deficit remains high, the economy is heavily reliant on central grants,, and core sectors like agriculture and industry contribute far less than services.
- Tourism: Showcase now under shadow of security concerns. In 2023, a record 2.11 crore tourists visited J&K, and tourism contributed 7% to the GDP. The tourism boom was seen as evidence of the post-Article 370 normalcy. The Pahalgam attack and subsequent security lockdown of 50 tourist spots were a severe blow.
- Private investment in tourism remains sluggish despite incentives. Only five hotels have opted into the new industrial scheme.
- In response to the Pahalgam attack, the administration shut 50 destinations and initiated a comprehensive security review. Since then, 16 such destinations have been reopened for tourists.
- But adventure tourism may now be limited to areas with a significant presence of security forces.
Conclusion
The Pahalgam incident is a sobering reminder that despite the downward trend in militancy, the threat has not disappeared. Even so, the government sees tourism as a vital economic lever and a tool for youth engagement.