Editorial 2 : Ahead of Alaska summit
Context
Trump-Putin summit in, Alaska, is reminiscent of Yalta 1945, when the leaders of the US, UK, and the Soviet Union met to decide the future of post-War Europe without Charles de Gaulle of France at the table.
The meeting and venue
- This will be the first in-person meeting between the leaders of the US and Russia since June 2021, when Putin met then President Joe Biden in Geneva. T
- Putin will be the first Russian leader to visit Alaska, which was sold to the US in 1867 for $7.2 million. He last visited the US in 2015 to attend events at the United Nations.
What Trump desires
- Trump had famously promised to end the war in 24 hours. Within a month of his inauguration, the President spoke with Putin — with whom he had claimed to have a good relationship for years — over the phone for 90 minutes.
- Trump, with his fascination with stopping wars and conflicts, wants to show the world that he has delivered in Ukraine. He aspires for the Nobel Peace Prize, and likely suspects that he is being played by Putin.
The demands of Putin
- For Putin, the meeting will be a victory from the moment he lands in Alaska. He has been declared an outcast by the West, and he will be on American soil at a time he has charges of war crimes against him.
- Recognition from the leader of the world’s most powerful country is proof that efforts to isolate him have failed.
- Putin has aimed high — asking for not just all the Ukrainian territories that Russia currently occupies and a ban on Ukraine’s entry into NATO, but also the removal of Zelenskyy.
- He will also be looking at an easing of the sanctions on Russia, which have affected its technology and defence industries. Russia’s budget deficit is increasing, and its income from oil and gas exports is under pressure.
The view from New Delhi
- As Trump seeks to pile pressure on Russia, he has squeezed India with a 25% “penalty” for buying Russian oil, in addition to 25% tariffs on Indian exports to the US.
- For Trump, India is the easiest target — the US has limited leverage with China, which buys the most energy from Russia.
- NATO chief Mark Rutte had earlier warned India, China, and Brazil that they could face severe economic penalties if they continued to do business with Russia. India and Brazil face 50% US tariffs, the highest in the world.
- The outcome of the Alaska summit is of much consequence for India. New Delhi hopes that if Trump comes out feeling good with a “win” in his mind, it could lead to a rethink of the 25% penalty.
- This meeting holds the promise of bringing to an end the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and opening up the prospects for peace. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said on several occasions, ‘this is not an era of war’,”
- Besides hoping for the removal of the penalty for buying Russian oil, India would be keen to participate in the rebuilding of Ukraine, as the post-conflict future emerges.
Conclusion
India will also be looking at how Beijing moves on the peace negotiations, and whether the US — after bringing the Ukraine war to an end — is able to refocus on the Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China.