Editorial 1 : G20 Adrift Without Great Powers
Context
The recent Johannesburg G20 Summit highlighted the declining relevance of the grouping due to the absence of major powers.
Introduction
The G20, once created as a collective platform to manage global financial and economic crises, is losing strategic coherence. The withdrawal—both symbolic and substantive—of the US, China, and Russia from recent summits reflects shifting geopolitical priorities. This drift raises concerns about the group’s ability to address global economic challenges, climate issues, and multilateral trade coordination.
Background: How the G20 Was Born
- The 2008 trans-Atlantic financial crisis exposed limitations of the G8.
- China had become central to global economic stability but the US hesitated to elevate it through the G8.
- France proposed upgrading the G20 finance ministers group to a leaders’ summit.
- From 2008–09, early summits in Washington, London, and Pittsburgh provided coordinated responses, including financial reforms and institutional strengthening.
How Relevance Began to Decline
1. Shift from crisis-response to discussion forum
- Initial summits were action-oriented; later ones became largely declaratory.
- Limited progress on climate finance, trade liberalisation, and reform of global institutions diminished credibility.
2. Geopolitical tensions paralysed consensus
- Trade war launched by the US against China (2017–21).
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine intensified divisions.
- Joint statements became contentious since 2022.
3. Absence of Big Three
- 2022: Putin absent.
- 2023: Neither Xi nor Putin attended.
- 2025 Johannesburg summit: Absence of Trump, Xi, and Putin made the meeting a "middle powers" gathering.
Why Great Powers Are Disengaging
1. US unilateralism under Trump
- Preference for bilateral deals over plurilateral consensus.
- Imposition of tariffs and assertion of US primacy reduced trust in multilateral forums.
2. Proposal of G2 (US–China condominium)
- Elevates China above middle powers, undercutting the relevance of G20.
3. Push to re-induct Russia into G8
- Reduces Russia’s incentive to prioritise G20 processes.
Implications for Global Governance
1. Diminished Capacity for Global Economic Coordination
- Issues like climate change, trade restrictions, and migration require broad, coordinated responses.
- Fragmentation makes meaningful cooperation difficult.
2. Rise of alternative platforms
- East Asia Summit (EAS) is emerging as a more relevant grouping with major economic and strategic actors.
- Middle-power coalitions (e.g., I2U2, BRICS expansion) are gaining prominence.
3. Risk of institutional atrophy
- G20 may not formally dissolve but could become a symbolic gathering with limited policy outcomes.
India’s Concerns and Policy Dilemmas
1. Losing a key platform
- G20 was India’s first entry into a high-level global economic governance forum.
- Enabled India to project leadership, especially on Global South issues.
2. Need for recalibration
- India may reassess its approach to the Quad amid changing US–China dynamics.
- Engagement with EAS and ASEAN-centric architectures becomes more important.
3. Middle-power diplomacy
- India must sustain coalitions with countries like Japan, Indonesia, Brazil, and South Africa to shape global agendas even without Big Three cooperation.
Way Forward
- Reinvigorate multilateralism: Promote issue-based coalitions (climate finance, digital governance, resilient supply chains).
- Strengthen South–South cooperation: Build on Global South agenda established during India’s presidency.
- Bridge major power divides: Leverage diplomatic outreach to engage both the US and China where possible.
- Promote institutional reforms: Advocate credible timelines for WTO reform, climate finance delivery, and global taxation frameworks.
- Diversify platforms: Actively use EAS, BRICS+, SCO, and Indo-Pacific institutions to secure national interests.
Conclusion
The G20’s diminishing relevance reflects deeper shifts in global power distribution and strategic priorities. Without the active participation of major powers, the group risks becoming a symbolic forum rather than a driver of global economic governance. For India, strategic agility and diversified multilateral engagement will be essential to safeguard its interests in an increasingly fragmented world order.