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06 Jul 2026 : El Niño and Iran sharpen India’s food prices challenge

Article 3: El Niño and Iran sharpen India’s food prices challenge

Why in news: India faces a weak monsoon and a strengthening El Niño, threatening kharif and rabi production, increasing food inflation risks, and requiring proactive supply management, farmer support, and climate-resilient agriculture.

Key Details

  • Deficient Monsoon: June rainfall was 39.8% below normal, delaying kharif sowing and reducing acreage under oilseeds, pulses, and cotton.
  • El Niño Intensification: A strong El Niño may suppress rainfall, raise temperatures, shorten winter, and adversely affect both kharif and rabi crops.
  • Food Inflation Risk: Lower domestic production could revive persistent food inflation, similar to 2023–24, increasing pressure on household budgets.
  • Import Dependence: India may require higher imports of edible oils and pulses, increasing vulnerability to global price volatility and external supply shocks.
  • Implementation Challenges: Effective execution of MSP support, crop insurance, and rural employment schemes is crucial to protect farmers and stabilize rural incomes.

Weak Monsoon Performance

  • June rainfall was 39.8% below normal, with 99.5 mm rainfall—the 5th lowest June rainfall on record.
  • Only 2014, 2009, 1926, and 1905 recorded lower June rainfall.
  • The weak onset delayed kharif crop sowing, raising concerns over agricultural output.

Recent Improvement in Monsoon

  • Rainfall deficit narrowed to 24.1% (as of July 5) due to improved monsoon activity.
  • The southwest monsoon has now covered about 95% of the country.
  • Revival since June 30 is expected to accelerate kharif sowing and partially bridge earlier planting gaps.

Impact on Kharif Agriculture

  • Overall kharif sowing was 22.7% lower than last year by June 25.
  • Major sowing deficits were:
    • Oilseeds: 53.3%
    • Pulses: 30.5%
    • Cotton: 34.6%
  • Improved rainfall can help recover these acreage losses.

El Niño Risks and Economic Concerns

  • Moderate El Niño is expected to strengthen into a strong event during the second half of the monsoon.
  • Likely impacts include:
    • Below-normal rainfall and higher temperatures.
    • Reduced kharif yields and a shorter, warmer winter, affecting rabi crops such as wheat, mustard, chana, masoor, and potato.
    • Higher risk of food inflation, similar to 2023–24, when retail food inflation averaged over 8.5%.

Policy Priorities

  • Keep imports of pulses and edible oils open to manage supply shortages.
  • Ensure Minimum Support Price (MSP) support through price deficiency payments for pulses, oilseeds, millets, and cotton to encourage cultivation over water-intensive crops.
  • Strengthen implementation of:
    • Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY)
    • VB-G RAM G
  • Combine effective supply-side measures with strong scheme implementation to contain food inflation and protect farmers.

Conclusion

The evolving monsoon and El Niño situation highlights India's growing climate vulnerability. A balanced strategy combining climate-resilient agriculture, timely farmer incentives, efficient crop insurance, diversified cropping patterns, and proactive food supply management is essential. Strengthening agricultural resilience today will safeguard food security, control inflation, and ensure sustainable rural livelihoods in an era of increasing climatic uncertainty.

Descriptive question:

Q. "A strong El Niño poses significant challenges to India's agriculture and food security." Discuss its likely economic impacts and suggest policy measures to enhance climate resilience. (150 words, 10 marks)

Source: The Indian Expres