Editorial 2: ​Population decline and an ill-informed chorus

Context

The fertility rate is declining, but many of the fears around it are too early, based on weak analysis, and raise ethical concerns.

Introduction

Demographic issues have long been a part of public discussion, though often misunderstood or misinterpreted. With each passing World Population Day, the conversation keeps shifting — from earlier Malthusian fears of uncontrolled population growth and environmental pressure, to today’s rising concern over rapidly declining fertility rates.

Population Decline: Alarm vs Reality

Insights from the UNFPA Report 2025

• Title: “The Real Fertility Crisis: The Pursuit of Reproductive Agency in a Changing World”
• The report surveyed 14,000 people across 14 countries to understand fertility intentions and barriers.
• Key Findings:
  • 1 in 5 respondents said they could not have as many children as they wanted.
  • 23% of people wanted to have a child at a specific time, but could not.
  • Of those, 40% ultimately had to give up the idea of having a child.
• Universal Fertility Barriers: The findings showed that regardless of whether a country has high or low fertility rates, people often:
  • Overachieve or underachieve their desired family size.
  • Face common barriers in fulfilling their fertility goals.

India-Specific Barriers

• Respondents in India reported these top reasons for having fewer children than desired:

South Korea’s Policy Response and Current Outlook

• South Korea has invested over $200 billion over the past 20 years to raise fertility rates.
• In Q1 of 2025, for the first time in nine years, births rose by 7.3% compared to the same period in 2024.
• This slight increase in births is linked to:
  • A rise in marriages
  • A more positive social outlook on marriage and children
• However, major concerns still persist among respondents in Korea:

Need for societal changes

• The panic over declining birth rates and ageing populations has unfairly blamed women who choose not to have children.
• This has led to restrictions on reproductive rights, including abortion access and contraception.
• Treating all women as a single, uniform group and expecting them to embrace childbearing is unrealistic and misguided.
• In reality, most people do want children — typically around two — but many are unable to become parents due to various barriers, not by choice.
• The focus should be on supporting women who want children but can’t have them, instead of policing those who are voluntarily child-free.
• Target-driven pro-natalist policies (e.g., baby bonuses, one-time cash incentives):
  • Often reinforce traditional gender roles
  • Overlook the role of men in parenting
  • May result in more harm than benefit if not designed thoughtfully and inclusively

Conclusion

Countries grappling with declining fertility must move beyond ethno-nationalist narratives and instead focus on driving meaningful societal change that genuinely supports women and families. The fear surrounding a shrinking workforce should not lead to pressure on women to bear more children. Instead, the solution lies in integrating women into the paid workforce and ensuring they are not penalised for motherhood. Empowering women economically and socially is a far more sustainable and ethical response than coercive population strategies.