Article 3: As El Niño looms, guard against food inflation
Why in news: India's southwest monsoon rainfall remains 42.8% below normal till June 22, raising concerns over agricultural output, food inflation, and the expected intensification of El Niño conditions.
Key Details
- All-India rainfall deficit stands at 42.8% below normal due to weak monsoon winds and delayed monsoon progression.
- The monsoon arrived in Kerala three days late and remained largely stagnant between June 15 and June 21.
- A strengthening El Niño is forecast to become strong by August-September and very strong during October-January.
- Deficient rainfall may affect kharif sowing, while higher temperatures associated with El Niño could damage rabi crops.
- The government needs crop insurance support, supply-side management, open import policies, and rural employment measures to mitigate risks.
Severe Monsoon Deficit
- Southwest Monsoon rainfall is 42.8% below normal till June 22
- Monsoon arrived three days late over Kerala
- Weak monsoon winds slowed its progress
- Indicates a challenging start to the agricultural season
Causes of Weak Monsoon Performance
- Strong northwesterly dry winds suppressed monsoon currents
- Absence of an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
- Monsoon made no significant progress between June 15 and 21
- Revival signs appeared only recently
Growing Threat of El Niño
- El Niño expected to strengthen during August–September
- May become very strong during October–January
- Previous strong El Niño events caused drought conditions
- Raises concerns for the 2026–27 agricultural year
Impact on Agriculture and Food Prices
- Kharif sowing affected due to inadequate rainfall
- Higher temperatures may damage rabi crops
- Risk of lower agricultural output and food inflation
- Current food prices remain stable due to record harvests in previous years
Policy Measures Needed
- Keep import channels open to manage food supplies
- Avoid sudden export bans and restrictions
- Expedite crop surveys and insurance compensation
- Strengthen VB-GRAMG rural employment programme to support rural livelihoods
Conclusion
The emerging monsoon deficit coupled with a strengthening El Niño poses significant risks to agricultural production, farmer livelihoods, and food price stability. India must adopt proactive strategies including climate-resilient agriculture, efficient crop insurance, better water management, and prudent trade policies. Timely interventions can reduce economic disruptions and strengthen resilience against increasingly frequent climate-related uncertainties.
Descriptive question:
Q. "Examine the impact of El Niño-induced monsoon variability on Indian agriculture, food security, and inflation. Suggest measures to enhance climate resilience in the agricultural sector." (250 words, 15 marks)
Source: The Indian Express