Article 3: El Niño: Monsoon Uncertainty and Economic Impacts
Why in news: El Niño is in news due to recent forecasts of weak monsoon, rising heatwaves, and possible economic stress in India, prompting concerns over agriculture, water availability, and inflation trends.
Key Details
- Fisheries impact: Warmer oceans reduce fish availability, affecting coastal livelihoods.
- Forest fire risk: Dry and hot conditions increase chances of wildfires in many regions.
- Health concerns: Higher temperatures raise risks of heat strokes and water-borne diseases.
- Urban stress: Cities face water shortages and higher electricity demand during heatwaves.
- Global trade effects: Weather disruptions can influence commodity prices and supply chains worldwide.
Overview of El Niño
- El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which disrupts global weather systems.
- It is a key phase of the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) cycle, alongside La Niña and neutral conditions.
- The event occurs every 2–7 years and generally lasts 9–12 months, sometimes extending beyond a year.
- It significantly alters atmospheric circulation, especially impacting trade winds and monsoon patterns.
Causes and Mechanism
- Weakening of trade winds reduces the westward movement of warm surface waters, allowing them to shift eastward.
- Eastward movement of warm water leads to higher sea surface temperatures near the western coast of South America.
- Suppression of upwelling prevents cold, nutrient-rich water from rising, disrupting marine ecosystems and fisheries.
- Changes in pressure systems (Southern Oscillation) modify the balance between high and low pressure zones across the Pacific Ocean.
Global Impacts
- Weather extremes such as droughts in Australia and Southeast Asia and heavy rainfall in parts of South America become more frequent.
- Rise in global temperatures often makes El Niño years among the warmest on record.
- Changes in cyclone patterns affect the intensity and distribution of storms across oceans.
- Agricultural disruptions occur due to irregular rainfall, floods, and heat stress, impacting food security.
Impact on India
- Weakening of the southwest monsoon often leads to below-normal rainfall.
- Drought conditions reduce water availability for irrigation and drinking purposes.
- Increased heatwaves result in higher temperatures and prolonged dry spells.
- Economic consequences include impacts on crop production, rural incomes, and inflation levels.
Conclusion
El Niño continues to be a major climatic influence on India’s economy and environment. With rising chances of irregular monsoon and extreme heat, its effects are becoming more pronounced. Strengthening water conservation, crop diversification, and early warning systems is essential. Long-term resilience depends on integrating climate adaptation into policy, ensuring sustainable agriculture, and minimizing risks to livelihoods and economic stability.
EXPECTED QUESTION FOR PRELIMS:
Q. Consider the following statements about El Niño:
1. It is associated with warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
2. It generally leads to a stronger Indian monsoon.
3. It can influence global weather patterns and temperatures.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 1 and 3 only
(c) 2 and 3 only
(d) None of the above
Answer: b