India - Pakistan Relations

ndia and Pakistan have a complex relationship marked by longstanding issues such as terrorism and the Kashmir dispute. Both countries have experienced tensions due to cross-border terrorism, with India urging Pakistan to take credible action against perpetrators. The Kashmir conflict remains a focal point, with both nations claiming sovereignty over the region. Despite attempts to improve relations through initiatives like the Shimla Agreement, Agra Summit, and Lahore Summit, mistrust persists. Economic opportunities, energy security, and regional stability could be achieved through enhanced cooperation. However, progress is hindered by continued hostility and the unresolved Kashmir issue.

India and Pakistan, despite sharing linguistic, cultural, and economic ties, have a history marked by violence and conflict. The partition of British India in 1947 led to massive migration and bloodshed, creating India as a secular nation and Pakistan as a Muslim-majority state. This partition ignited territorial disputes, particularly over Jammu & Kashmir, leading to frequent military confrontations. Since independence, both countries have engaged in three major wars and numerous smaller skirmishes, straining their diplomatic relations.

India and Pakistan, two neighbouring countries in South Asia, share a complex and often tense relationship. The history of their ties is marked by a series of conflicts, territorial disputes, and political tensions. Despite their geographical proximity, the relationship between India and Pakistan has been strained since the partition. This division sparked violence and mass migrations, leaving a legacy of animosity and distrust between the two countries.

1947: Partition and First Indo-Pak War

• August 1947: British India is divided into two independent nations, India and Pakistan, leading to widespread violence and displacement.
• October 1947: The first Indo-Pak War breaks out over the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, with both countries vying for control.
• December 1948: The war ends with the establishment of the Line of Control (LoC) and the signing of the Karachi Agreement, mediated by the United Nations.

1965: Second Indo-Pak War

• April 1965: Tensions escalate between India and Pakistan, leading to clashes along the border.
• September 1965: The second Indo-Pak War erupts, primarily over the disputed territory of Kashmir.
• September 1965: The war ends with a ceasefire mediated by the United Nations, and both sides revert to the pre-war positions.
• Tashkent Agreement: Signed on January 10, 1966, between India and Pakistan, following the end of the 1965 Indo-Pakistani War. The agreement was brokered by the Soviet Union in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, and aimed to restore diplomatic relations and establish peace between the two countries.

1971: Bangladesh Liberation War

• March 1971: Political unrest in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) leads to calls for independence.
• December 1971: India intervenes in support of the Bangladesh Liberation War, leading to a full-scale conflict between India and Pakistan.
• December 1971: The war ends with the surrender of Pakistani forces and the creation of Bangladesh as an independent nation.

• Shimla Agreement: Signed on July 2, 1972, between India and Pakistan, following the 1971 Indo-Pakistani War that led to the creation of Bangladesh. The agreement was signed in Shimla, India, and outlined the principles that would govern their future relations. It emphasised the resolution of disputes through bilateral negotiations and aimed to establish lasting peace and mutual respect between the two nations.

1999: Kargil Conflict

• May-July 1999: Pakistani forces infiltrate into the Indian-administered territory of Kargil in Kashmir, leading to a limited-scale conflict.
• July 1999: The conflict ends with Indian forces regaining control of the territory, but at a significant human cost.

2001-2002: India-Pakistan Standoff

• December 2001: Terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament in New Delhi leads to heightened tensions between India and Pakistan.
• May-June 2002: Military standoff between India and Pakistan, with both countries mobilising troops along the border.
• June 2002: Tensions ease after diplomatic efforts by the international community, including the United States.

2003: Ceasefire Agreement

• November 2003: India and Pakistan agree to a ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) and the International Border (IB), leading to a significant reduction in cross-border violence.
• The ceasefire agreement holds, with occasional violations, but remains an essential mechanism for maintaining peace along the border.

• January 2016: A terrorist attack on the Pathankot airbase in India, allegedly carried out by militants from Pakistan, further strains bilateral relations.
• February 14, 2019: A suicide bombing in Pulwama, Kashmir, kills over 40 Indian paramilitary personnel. India blames Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) for the attack.
• February 26, 2019: In response to the Pulwama attack, Indian Air Force conducts airstrikes targeting alleged JeM training camps in Balakot, Pakistan.
• February 27, 2019: Pakistan retaliates by conducting airstrikes across the Line of Control (LoC) and shooting down an Indian fighter jet, leading to heightened tensions between the two countries.
• February 28, 2019: Pakistan releases Indian pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, captured after his plane was shot down during the aerial skirmishes.

• India revoked Article 370 of its constitution, which granted special autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir, integrating the region fully into the Indian Union.
• Pakistan condemns India's move, downgrades diplomatic relations, suspends bilateral trade, and expels the Indian High Commissioner from Islamabad.

• February 2021: India and Pakistan issue a joint statement announcing a return to the 2003 ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control (LoC), signalling a thaw in relations after years of tensions.
• Both countries agree to observe the ceasefire strictly and address core issues to maintain peace along the border.

The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960 after nine years of negotiations between India (Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru) and Pakistan (President Ayub Khan), facilitated by the World Bank. India receives 20% of the water from the Indus River System, with the remaining 80% allocated to Pakistan. India can utilize water from the Western Rivers for domestic, non-consumptive needs and electricity generation.

• Division of Rivers: India controls the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), while Pakistan controls the Western Rivers (Indus, Chenab, Jhelum).
• A Permanent Indus Commission resolves disputes, with arbitration mechanisms in place.
• Responsible Use: Both countries must minimize damage to each other during flood control activities, and the use of natural river channels for flood discharge is unrestricted.
• In 2016, Pakistan raised concerns over India's hydroelectric projects (Kishenganga (330 MW) and Ratle (850 MW) hydroelectric power plants) in Jammu & Kashmir, leading to technical discussions facilitated by the World Bank.

India and Pakistan share a 3,323 km border running through four Indian states and three Pakistani provinces. The border is divided into three main parts: the International Border (IB), the Line of Control (LoC), and the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL).

• International Border (IB): Extending approximately 2,400 km from Gujarat to the north banks of Chenab, the IB is generally acknowledged by both countries. Drawn by Sir Cyril Radcliffe during partition, it is guarded by India's Border Security Force (BSF). Some sections of the IB, about 201 km, near Jammu and Kashmir are termed as the Working Boundary (WB) by Pakistan.
• Line of Control (LoC): Stretching 740 km, the LoC separates Pakistan-occupied Kashmir from Indian-administered Kashmir. Established after the 1948 Pakistan aggression, it is governed by the 1972 Shimla Agreement. Guarded by the Indian Army, the LoC runs from parts of Jammu to NJ 9842 in the Siachen Glacier.
• Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL): The AGPL spans 110 km and divides disputed regions in the Siachen Glacier, extending from Point NJ 9842 to Indiracol. Guarded by the Indian Army, it represents the current positions in the Siachen Glacier dispute.

• Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) refers to the region of Jammu and Kashmir that is administered by Pakistan. POK came into existence after the first war between India and Pakistan in 1947-48. Following the partition of British India, the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir had the option to accede to either India or Pakistan. However, a conflict erupted over the territory, leading to the involvement of Pakistani irregular forces and later regular troops. As a result, Pakistan gained control of a significant portion of the region, which became known as POK.
• The Line of Control (LoC) serves as the de facto border between the Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir and POK. This line is heavily militarised, with frequent skirmishes between Indian and Pakistani forces. POK comprises three main areas: Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Kashmir, and the so-called Northern Areas.
• The United Nations Security Council passed resolutions in 1948 and 1949 calling for a plebiscite to be held in Jammu and Kashmir to determine its future status. However, the plebiscite has never been held due to disagreements between India and Pakistan over its implementation.
• The UN established the United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) to monitor the ceasefire along the LoC. However, the UN has not been successful in mediating a lasting solution to the dispute.
• India considers POK to be an integral part of its territory and views Pakistan's presence in the region as an illegal occupation. India asserts its claim over the entire state of Jammu and Kashmir, including POK and Gilgit-Baltistan, based on historical and legal grounds.
• India maintains that any resolution to the Kashmir issue must be based on bilateral agreements between India and Pakistan, without the involvement of third parties. However, Pakistan continues to seek international intervention, including UN intervention, to address the Kashmir dispute.

• India granted Most Favoured Nation status to Pakistan in 1996, but Pakistan's reciprocal action remains unimplemented.
• India reduced tariffs under SAFTA in 2012, but Pakistan's trade policy towards India remains restrictive.
• Post-Pulwama attack, India withdrew Most Favoured Nation status and hiked customs duty on Pakistani exports. While Pakistan suspended bilateral trade in 2019.
• Most of their trade is done through middle eastern countries now.

• Hundreds of Indian prisoners, including fishermen, are in Pakistani custody. India proposed reviving the Joint Judicial Committee to address humanitarian issues.
• In 1974, India and Pakistan signed the Bilateral Protocol on Visits to Religious Shrines, which facilitates visits to religious sites for pilgrims from both countries. According to this protocol, three Hindu pilgrimage and four Sikh pilgrimage are permitted to visit 15 shrines in Pakistan each year. Similarly, five Pakistani pilgrimage are allowed to visit 7 shrines in India annually.
• The Kartarpur Corridor initiative aims to ease access for Indian pilgrims to Gurdwara Kartarpur Sahib in Pakistan, initiated by India in 2018.

Cross-border terrorism between India and Pakistan has been a persistent issue, marked by numerous incidents and escalations over the years. One significant event was the Mumbai terror attacks on November 26, 2008, where Pakistani militants carried out coordinated attacks across various locations in Mumbai, resulting in the deaths of over 160 people. India has consistently urged Pakistan to take credible and verifiable action against the perpetrators of these attacks.

Other notable instances include the cross-border terror attack on the Pathankot Airbase on January 2, 2016, and the attack on an Indian Army camp in Uri in August 2016.

One of the deadliest attacks occurred on February 14, 2019, when a suicide bomber affiliated with the Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) targeted a convoy of Indian security forces in Pulwama, Kashmir. The attack resulted in the deaths of 40 Indian paramilitary personnel, making it one of the deadliest attacks in the region in recent years.

China and Pakistan have forged an agreement to develop the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a multi-billion-dollar infrastructure project. The corridor spans from Kashgar in China's Xinjiang province to the Gwadar Port in Pakistan's Balochistan province, passing through various regions in Pakistan. The project aims to enhance connectivity and trade between the two countries by constructing highways, railways, pipelines, and other infrastructure.

However, the CPEC also raises security concerns for India. The strategic location of the corridor, passing through disputed regions such as Gilgit-Baltistan in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, poses challenges to India's security interests. India views the development of infrastructure in these contested areas as a potential threat, as it could facilitate the movement of Chinese military personnel and equipment closer to India's borders.

Furthermore, India is wary of China's growing influence in the region through its investments in the CPEC. The project has the potential to bolster China's economic and military presence in Pakistan, thereby strengthening the China-Pakistan alliance. This alliance could further tilt the balance of power in South Asia against India, affecting India's strategic interests in the region.

• Consistent Neighbourhood Policy: India prioritises normal relations with Pakistan under its "Neighbourhood First Policy." Numerous attempts to improve relations include summits like Shimla, Agra, and Lahore.
• Invitation for Swearing-In Ceremony: In 2014, India invited then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for PM Modi's swearing-in ceremony, signaling a gesture of goodwill.
• Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue Proposal: India proposed a Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue despite instances of cross-border terrorism and violence.
• Security Concerns: Attacks like those on Pathankot Airbase (2016), Uri Army Camp (2016), and Pulwama convoy (2019) underscore the need for trust-building and a terrorism-free environment. Cross-border terrorism remains a significant challenge. India emphasizes Pakistan's need to take verifiable action against terrorism. Despite sharing evidence, progress in the trial of Mumbai terror attack perpetrators in Pakistan has been lacking.

1. South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC):
• Evolution: SAARC was established in 1985 to promote regional cooperation and development among South Asian countries, including India and Pakistan.
• Current Situation: Despite being members, India and Pakistan's relations have strained SAARC's effectiveness. Several SAARC summits have been postponed due to tensions between the two countries.
• Impact: India and Pakistan's bilateral disputes, especially regarding Kashmir, have often overshadowed SAARC's agenda, hindering regional cooperation.
2. Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO):
• Evolution: India and Pakistan became full members of the SCO in 2017, joining other Eurasian countries in security and economic cooperation.
• Current Situation: Within the SCO, India and Pakistan engage in discussions on security and counter-terrorism measures. However, bilateral tensions sometimes limit their collaboration.
• Potential: Despite bilateral challenges, the SCO provides a platform for India and Pakistan to engage with other regional powers, fostering dialogue and cooperation on shared concerns.
3. United Nations (UN):
• Involvement: Both India and Pakistan are members of the UN, participating in various forums and committees.
• Current Situation: At the UN, India and Pakistan often present divergent views on issues such as Kashmir and terrorism. Despite occasional diplomatic exchanges, deep-seated tensions persist.
• Role: The UN serves as a platform for India and Pakistan to voice their concerns on international issues and seek resolutions through diplomatic channels, although progress can be slow due to entrenched differences.
4. Heart of Asia – Istanbul Process (HoA-IP):
• Evolution: Established in 2011, HoA-IP aims to promote regional cooperation and confidence-building measures among Afghanistan and its neighbours, including India and Pakistan.
• Current Situation: India and Pakistan participate in HoA-IP meetings, focusing on regional stability and economic connectivity in Afghanistan. However, bilateral tensions can hinder collaboration on shared objectives.
5. Opportunities: Despite challenges, HoA-IP provides a forum for India and Pakistan to engage constructively with other regional stakeholders, supporting efforts for peace and development in Afghanistan.

1. Economic Opportunities: Peace at the border and a resolution of the Kashmir issue could lead to economic benefits, particularly through projects like the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This corridor, passing through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK), could stimulate economic growth in the region and act as a gateway to Central Asia.
2. Energy Security: Enhanced relations between India and Pakistan could facilitate projects like the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline. This pipeline, originating in Turkmenistan and passing through Afghanistan and Pakistan before reaching India, could address the energy needs of both nations, supporting their growing economies.
3. Regional Cooperation: Reviving stalled projects such as the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline could further bolster energy security and foster cooperation between the two nations.
4. Stability in Afghanistan: Improved relations between India and Pakistan are crucial for ensuring stability in Afghanistan. Terrorism affects both countries, and a stable Afghanistan is in their mutual interest. Better ties with Pakistan could also facilitate direct road access to Afghanistan, streamlining trade and regional connectivity.
5. Strengthening Regional Organisations: Enhanced bilateral relations could revitalise the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and its initiatives. Currently hindered by tensions between India and Pakistan, improved relations could unlock the full potential of SAARC, fostering regional cooperation and development.

Fostering better relations between India and Pakistan is imperative for regional stability and global peace, considering the nuclear capabilities of both nations. With the border tensions persisting, Pakistan needs to demonstrate its commitment to combating terrorism and promoting peace in the region. By doing so, Pakistan can pave the way for improved bilateral relations with India. Policy makers should focus on promoting dialogue, confidence-building measures, and mutual cooperation in areas such as trade, energy, and counter-terrorism. A peaceful resolution of the Kashmir issue through diplomatic channels is essential for long-term stability in the region. Also, both nations can leverage soft power tools like sports(cricket in particular), cultural exchanges to increase people to people relations and mutual trust. Ultimately, both countries stand to benefit from cordial relations, which can contribute to prosperity and security for their citizens and the broader world.