OTHER ISSUES BETWEEN INDIA AND CHINA
The recent standoff is seen as a culmination of a number of disagreements between India and China and the relations between the two sides has soured in the last 2-3 years. Few of them are:
• India’s entry into the UNSC and the NSG
China has been opposing India’s entry into the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and in the Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG).
• India’s opposition to the OBOR
India has been opposing China’s flagship ‘One Belt One Road’ (OBOR) initiative‘, as the ‘China Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC)‘, a part of OBOR, passes through the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) and acceding to OBOR would mean undermining India’s sovereignty.
• Strengthening of India-USA relations
China is critical of India-USA relations and it is not merely a coincidence that the escalation at the tri-junction coincided with the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to the United States. India supports the US and other countries in reaffirming the freedom of navigation in international waters, which includes the South China Sea. Along with this, the ‘MALABAR Naval exercise’ between India, Japan and USA is also a matter to worry for China.
• Issue of Masood Azhar
India’s bid to get Jaish-e-Mohammad chief Masood Azhar be declared as an UN- designated terrorist has been blocked by China again and again. In fact, China is the only country in the 15 members UNSC to have opposed to the ban. China is of the view that India is trying to pursue political gains in the name of counterterrorism.
• India-China Water Dispute
The Brahmaputra and Ganga glaciers originate in China, which has an advantageous position in the region due to its upstream riparian position. However, China's reluctance to disclose details of its hydro-power projects has created a trust deficit between India and Bangladesh. The tension stems from China's dam-building and water division plans along the Brahmaputra, despite signing several MoUs to strengthen communication and strategic trust. India and Bangladesh, lower riparian countries, rely on the Brahmaputra's water for agriculture. China plans to build four more dams on the Brahmaputra in Tibet, raising concerns about Beijing's ability to divert or store water during political crises. India has built dams on the Teesta River to utilize its dry season flow.
WAY FORWARD
In recent decades after India gained its independence from Britain in 1947, there was a lot of popular hope for a strong and mutually beneficial partnership between the two nations. This was reflected in the popular phrase that was chanted by Indian children in the 1950s: Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai, the general atmosphere of bonhomie and Friendship was such that most Indians could not imagine the advent of Chinese military aggression on their relative unguarded northeast.
The following five decades have seen generation of Indians growing up with an inherent wariness of China and anything Chinese. The public popular imagination in India was fuelled by the often-repeated stories of the great betrayal by the supposed ally nation.
Despite gloomy predictions about the inevitability of competition between China and India, cooperation between Asia’s two emerging powers is possible. It, will however, require a much more concerted effort to bridge the gap in socio-cultural understanding that existed between them, there remains a fundamental lack of appreciation on the part of each country of the underlying cultural and societal norms that define the other norms that influence each country‘s perception of its own national interest.
It is argued that greater appreciation of these elements is critical if China and India are to successfully address issues such as the ongoing border dispute and the mounting trade imbalance.
In present and future scenarios, strategic and diplomatic relations between China and India are fraught with complication, tensions and misgivings on both sides upon the historical legacies of relations between the two countries. Much of the mistrust and misgivings emanate from the legacy of the 1962 war between the two countries.
From the recent incidents, although the possibility of an India-China armed conflict cannot be ruled out, any kind of military conflict is not in the interest of any country. The need of the hour is realising that our ‘strategic partnership’ could serve us both and help see Asia emerge as the core of world economy. This dream of ‘India-China Millennium of Exceptional Synergies’ that our Prime Minister envisions, however, needs magnanimity and willingness on part of both the nations.
OTHER CHINESE INITIATIVES
• China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC)
• CMEC is a branch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the Indian Ocean.
• China Nepal Economic Corridor (CNEC) which will link Tibet to Nepal. The endpoints of the project will touch the boundaries of the Gangetic plain. Thus three corridors signify the economic as well as strategic rise of China in the Indian subcontinent.
The String of Pearls
• According to experts, it is an attempt by China to encircle India through maintaining and developing its strategic bases in countries around India, such as Pakistan, Maldives, Myanmar among others which will help in confining India to its own land and limiting its influence on the neighbouring countries.
• This also provides China with an easy access and control over the vast Indian ocean. Interestingly, even when China continued to pursue this strategy, however unofficially, previous government of India had no reply to it.
• This string of pearls phenomena in the background of recent Chinese ‘One Belt One Road’ strategy has got a further boost as China is now not only focussing on countries around India but going further to Central Asia and Africa.
INDIA’S RESPONSE TO CHINA’S AGGRESSIVE MEASURES
India’s Necklace of diamonds strategy
Some strategic experts have always talked about a potential necklace of diamonds (strategic bases) that India can use to garland China or deploy the very Chinese strategy of encirclement. They have even hailed it as India’s answer to China’s string of pearls. India Building its Strategic Bases (Mining the Diamonds)
Changi Naval Base, Singapore – Prime Minister Narendra Modi paved the way for signing of a significant agreement between India and Singapore which provided Indian Navy ‘direct’ access to this naval base. This is crucial as Indian navy ships can now not only refuel but even rearm while sailing through the South China Sea.
Sabang Port, Indonesia – India got the military access to a strategic port like Sabang in 2018, located right at the entrance of one of world’s most famous choke point, Malacca Strait. This is one of the most significant agreements, as India now holds the strategic position in the Indian ocean through which large chunk of trade and crude oil passes on to China. Indian Naval ship INS Sumitra had visited Sabang Port recently.
Duqm Port, Oman – India leveraging its rising status in the Indian Ocean gained strategic military access to this port in 2018, located on the south-eastern seaboard of Oman which protects Indian interests in the western theatre of the Indian Ocean, especially for facilitating India’s crude imports from the Persian Gulf. Moreover, it is now an Indian facility located right between the two important Chinese pearls (bases) Djibouti in Africa and Gwadar in Pakistan.
Assumption Island, Seychelles – Overcoming the initial resistance, India is now developing this naval base in Seychelles, first agreed in 2015. Both the countries have continued to work on the project which gives the military access to India. This particularly signifies India’s increasing strategic presence not only in Indian ocean but also in the African continent where China is desperately trying to penetrate through the maritime silk route.
Chabahar Port, Iran – Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed the contract for development of this port in 2016. This port provides India access to Afghanistan and a precious trade route to Central Asia. In fact, India is reportedly about to begin operations at the Iranian port soon. This will give an unprecedented boost to India’s plan to increase its co operation and contacts with Asian and Central Asian countries.
India Developing its Existing Strategic Assets (Polishing the Potential Diamonds)
India, Asia and Central Asia Ashgabat Agreement & INSTC India joined this multi-modal transport agreement in 2018, to access Central Asian countries like Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, which are western neighbours of China.
In recent times, India has been seen increasing its engagements with various countries in Central Asia. This is essentially reflected in the remarkable increase of India’s trade with Central Asia from approximately $ 750 Mn in 2012-13 (here) to almost $ 1.5 Bn in 2017-18 (here). This is a growth of 100 per cent in the last 4-5 years.
Ashgabat agreement has provided India land connectivity to Central Asia if seen in conjunction with the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) in which India has hugely invested. This gives a clear view of the picture that India is not only escalating fast towards establishing connectivity to Russia but is also expanding its routes to all Central Asian countries like Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kirgizstan and Tajikistan.
India, East Asia and South East Asia
Mongolia
Mongolia is a country which is sandwiched between two giant neighbours, Russia and China. It has been actively looking to widen its relations with other countries, also known as its “Third Neighbour Foreign Policy”. Notably, it was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision to develop India’s relationship with Mongolia. This was particularly a strategic move to hint China that if it dares to come and play in and around India, we will no longer tolerate such overtures and can respond back methodically.
The Prime Minister announced a credit line of $1 Billion to Mongolia. Mongolia has already started the construction of its first ever oil refinery using India’s credit line which will end its dependency on fuel from neighbouring countries like China and Russia.
Further, an important point which advertently gave this crucial relationship a boost was that India and Mongolia decided to establish an air-corridor which will end Mongolia’s dependency, a landlocked country, on China which keeps threatening it by land blockages.
This gave a bargaining chip to Mongolia which it can easily leverage against China. So, due to all these mindful efforts, a symbiotic relationship has been established between India and Mongolia. Both the countries have come closer than ever before and Mongolia is emerging as a diamond in India’s necklace.
Japan
Japan is the Chinese neighbour on its north-eastern frontier. It has always felt threatened by the rise of China. By and large, the complementarities between Japan and China don’t exist. In fact, Japan has been aligned to USA’s camp since the days of cold war. India is its recent emerging special strategic partner to counter China’s influence. As soon as Prime Minister Narendra Modi went to Japan in 2014, Japan and India elevated their relationship and arrived at a “Special Strategic and Global Partnership”.
Not only this, India and Japan signed the long-pending civil nuclear agreement in 2016. This has been a major achievement of the Modi Government, as India is the only country outside of the Non-Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that has been signed by Japan for civil nuclear cooperation.
Further, India and Japan are working together on a game changing Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) which is being seen as a counter to China’s One Belt and One Road Initiative (OBOR) initiative. China is so rattled by this plan that one of its leading news agencies found it a ‘division plan’.
This clearly shows that China is actually upset by this India and Japan’s joint strategic move on the ever-evolving ‘grand chessboard’ of Asia and Africa. Undoubtedly, Japan is the natural diamond of India’s necklace.
Vietnam
Strengthening its deterrence against China, Vietnam, the south-east neighbour of China has been increasingly bestowing its full cooperation with This recently saw a greater boost when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the country in 2016, after a gap of almost 15 years.
This is also reflected in “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” between India and Vietnam. Further, India upped the ante by holding a joint naval exercise in 2018 with Vietnam in Vietnamese waters, the region is in proximity to the South China Sea. Chinese media reported it as a futile attempt to flex muscle.
After much hesitation under the previous regime, Brahmos missiles deal with Vietnam is now in the advanced stage. India has also expedited the process of supplying high speed patrol boats for Vietnamese coast guards. India’s satellite monitoring station in Vietnam, which is going to be activated soon, suggests that India is now ready to play a more constructive role in the South China Sea than ever before.
So, in recent times, Vietnam has emerged as yet another important diamond in India’s necklace, which will particularly be helpful to maintain a balance of power in the South East Asia region.
Global Strategic Alliances
India swiftly collaborates with other nations that share its values in order to counter China's influence in the Indian Ocean region.
QUAD: The QUAD, known as the ‘Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’ (QSD), is an informal strategic forum comprising four nations, namely — United States of America (USA), India, Australia and Japan who support the common interest of unhindered maritime trade and security aiming to ensure a free, open, and prosperous region.
I2U2:
The I2U2 Group, a strategic partnership between India, Israel, the UAE, and the US, aims to enhance cooperation in areas like water, energy, transportation, space, health, and food security. The grouping aims to promote economic development, scientific innovation, and regional stability, with member countries working together to address common challenges and explore new growth opportunities.
India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC):
Establishment: The initiative was formalized through a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by leaders from India, the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the United States during the G20 Summit in New Delhi (2023).
• Objective: This multi-modal connectivity project aims to enhance trade between India, the Arabian Peninsula, the Mediterranean, and Europe by developing critical infrastructure, including ports, railways, roads, maritime routes, and pipelines.
Key Components:
• Eastern Corridor: Connecting India to the Gulf region.
• Northern Corridor: Linking the Gulf to Europe.
• The project is a key component of the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII). Announced at the 2021 G7 summit in the UK, it is widely viewed as a strategic counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
• International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC): The INSTC, a 7,200-km multi-mode transportation network between India, Iran, and Russia, connects the Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, and Caspian Sea. Its key node, Chahbahar Port in Iran, monitors China's activities in the Arabian Sea and Strait of Hormuz.
Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA): The Indian Ocean Regional Authority (IORA) is an intergovernmental organization promoting economic cooperation and regional integration among Indian Ocean countries, focusing on trade, investment, and sustainable development initiatives among its member states.